Rahman Abdu R, Munir Tahir, Fazal Maheen, Cheema Salman Arif, Bhayo Mukhtiar Hussain
Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
Department of Anesthesiology, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
J Virol Methods. 2025 Feb;332:115076. doi: 10.1016/j.jviromet.2024.115076. Epub 2024 Nov 28.
Monkeypox (mpox) is a rare viral disease that can cause severe illness in humans, with outbreaks occurring primarily in central and western Africa. Well-coordinated and synchronized efforts are necessary to understand the factors involved in disease transmission and develop effective health interventions. The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between climate factors and daily mpox cases, as well as to identify the most suitable predictive model for transmission. We analyzed confirmed mpox cases from May 5, 2022, to February 14, 2023, in the 33 most affected countries. We employed and compared the efficiency of four models: Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial. We found a significant correlation between climate factors and daily mpox cases across most of the studied countries. Specifically, for each 1°C increase in the heat index (HI), daily cases increased by 7.7 % (IRR = 1.077, p < 0.05). Conversely, higher relative humidity (RH) decreased daily cases by 2.4 %, and increased wind speed (WS) reduced them by 7.3 %. The HI positively influences mpox spread, while RH and WS act as protective factors. Public health officials should consider these climate influences when developing targeted interventions.
猴痘是一种罕见的病毒性疾病，可导致人类严重患病，主要在非洲中部和西部爆发疫情。需要开展协调良好且同步的工作，以了解疾病传播所涉及的因素并制定有效的卫生干预措施。本研究的目的是评估气候因素与每日猴痘病例之间的关系，并确定最适合的传播预测模型。我们分析了2022年5月5日至2023年2月14日期间33个受影响最严重国家的确诊猴痘病例。我们采用并比较了四种模型的效率：泊松模型、负二项式模型、零膨胀泊松模型和零膨胀负二项式模型。我们发现，在大多数研究国家中，气候因素与每日猴痘病例之间存在显著相关性。具体而言，热指数（HI）每升高1°C，每日病例增加7.7%（发病率比=1.077，p<0.05）。相反，相对湿度（RH）升高使每日病例减少2.4%，风速（WS）增加使病例减少7.3%。热指数对猴痘传播有积极影响，而相对湿度和风速则起到保护作用。公共卫生官员在制定有针对性的干预措施时应考虑这些气候影响因素。
