Zanaty Naglaa, Ibrahim Nagat, Ramadan Haidi Karam-Allah, Ahmad Alzahraa Abdelraouf, Saad-Hussein Amal
Department of Environmental Studies, National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, Cairo, Egypt.
Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Infectious Diseases, Assiut Liver Center, Ministry of Health, Assiut, Egypt.
Trop Dis Travel Med Vaccines. 2024 Dec 1;10(1):24. doi: 10.1186/s40794-024-00234-z.
Climate change in the upcoming years will raise the health burden of zoonotic parasites. As a liver fluke, Fasciola depends on certain climate conditions to complete its life cycle and is significantly influenced by climate changes. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the increasing prevalence of human fascioliasis and climate changes in Upper Egypt.
Records of Fasciola cases in Assiut Governorate in Upper Egypt were evaluated between September 2018 and March 2023. The annual and monthly climate parameters of the region's temperature and humidity acquired from ERA5 and FLDAS were investigated between 2000 and 2023.
A total of 303 patients were included. The mean age was 33.9 ± 17.4 years; 57.1% were females, and the majority were rural residents. Positive correlations were found between temperature and the recorded cases in 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022 (r = 0.92, 0.41, 0.61, and 0.60, respectively). In 2018 and 2022, humidity and Fasciola frequency had a significant positive correlation (r = 0.97 and 0.49, respectively). An outbreak of fascioliasis was recorded in September 2018, coinciding with the peak temperature and high humidity levels, exceeding the average climatology range from 2000 to 2017. The recorded cases exhibited a seasonal pattern, with peaks in hot, humid summer and autumn.
The rise of human fascioliasis in Upper Egypt is influenced by local climate characteristics. A climate-based map of Fasciola distribution using forecast risk models is needed to predict future outbreaks and for better control.
未来几年的气候变化将增加人畜共患寄生虫的健康负担。作为一种肝吸虫，片形吸虫依赖特定的气候条件来完成其生命周期，并受到气候变化的显著影响。我们旨在研究埃及上埃及地区人类肝吸虫病患病率上升与气候变化之间的关系。
对2018年9月至2023年3月期间埃及上埃及艾斯尤特省的片形吸虫病例记录进行评估。调查了2000年至2023年期间从ERA5和FLDAS获取的该地区温度和湿度的年度和月度气候参数。
共纳入303例患者。平均年龄为33.9±17.4岁；57.1%为女性，大多数为农村居民。在2018年、2020年、2021年和2022年，温度与记录的病例之间存在正相关（r分别为0.92、0.41、0.61和0.60）。在2018年和2022年，湿度与片形吸虫感染率呈显著正相关（r分别为0.97和0.49）。2018年9月记录到一次肝吸虫病暴发，与高温和高湿度峰值同时出现，超过了2000年至2017年的平均气候范围。记录的病例呈现季节性模式，在炎热、潮湿的夏季和秋季达到高峰。
埃及上埃及地区人类肝吸虫病的增加受当地气候特征影响。需要使用预测风险模型绘制基于气候的片形吸虫分布图，以预测未来的疫情并更好地进行防控。
