McNair J N
Theor Popul Biol. 1986 Feb;29(1):38-63. doi: 10.1016/0040-5809(86)90004-3.
Prey refuges are widely believed to prevent prey extinction and damp predator-prey oscillations. A review of the empirical evidence suggests that refuges are indeed capable of playing the former role. But the conditions under which they do so are not understood, nor is there any solid evidence for an effect on population fluctuations. The intuitive view that refuges act to stabilize equilibria and damp predator-prey oscillations is based in several theoretical studies of extremely simple models. Using a more realistic model, I show that several kinds of refuges can exert a locally destabilizing effect and create stable, large-amplitude oscillations which would damp out if no refuge was present. This finding contrasts sharply with the usual view. I argue that current evidence is tol weak, and the range of theoretically possible effects is too broad, to justify any simple characterization of refuge effects in nature. Manipulative empirical studies are an important first step toward correcting this situation, and I discuss some important factors to consider in their design.
人们普遍认为猎物庇护所能够防止猎物灭绝，并抑制捕食者与猎物数量的波动。对实证证据的回顾表明，庇护所确实能够起到前者的作用。但它们发挥这一作用的条件尚不明确，而且也没有确凿证据表明其对种群波动有影响。庇护所起到稳定平衡和抑制捕食者与猎物数量波动的直观观点，是基于对极其简单模型的若干理论研究。通过使用一个更现实的模型，我发现几种类型的庇护所可能会产生局部不稳定效应，并引发稳定的大幅波动，而如果没有庇护所，这些波动将会逐渐消失。这一发现与通常观点形成鲜明对比。我认为目前的证据太过薄弱，理论上可能产生的影响范围又过于宽泛，无法为自然界中庇护所效应进行任何简单的特征描述提供依据。操纵性实证研究是纠正这种情况的重要第一步，我将讨论在其设计中需要考虑的一些重要因素。
