Seasonal refuge patterns of phytoplankton trigger irregular bloom events in a contaminated environment.

Several experimental evidences and field data documented that zooplankton may alter its behavioral response in the presence of toxic phytoplankton, reducing its consumption to the point of starvation. This paper is devoted to the mathematical study of such interactions of toxic phytoplankton with grazer zooplankton. The non-toxic phytoplankton is assumed to adopt a density-dependent refuge strategy to avoid over-predation by zooplankton. Both groups of phytoplankton are assumed to suffer direct harm from anthropogenic toxicants, while zooplankton is affected indirectly by ingesting contaminated phytoplankton. We calibrate the proposed model with the field data from Talsari and Digha Mohana, India, and estimate some crucial model parameters consistent with the behavior of the observed data. Our results demonstrate that zooplankton grazing on toxic phytoplankton plays a key role in the emergence or mitigation of plankton blooms. We also highlight the system's potential to exhibit multiple stable configurations under the same ecological conditions. The plankton system experiences significant regime shifts, which are explored through various bifurcation scenarios, such as transcritical and saddle-node bifurcations. These shifts are influenced by changes in refuge capacity, species growth rates, and environmental carrying capacity. Furthermore, we incorporate environmental variations due to seasonal periodic or almost periodic changes, allowing the refuge parameter to be time-dependent. We observe that the forced system exhibits double periodic solutions. Moreover, stronger seasonal variations in the refuge pattern lead to irregular chaotic blooms. In conclusion, the results offer valuable insights into the sustainability of biodiversity, potentially shedding light on the origin of diverse plankton bloom phenomena.