St John Philip D, Nowicki Scott, Tate Robert B
Section of Geriatric Medicine, Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg.
Centre on Aging, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg.
Can Geriatr J. 2024 Dec 1;27(4):462-472. doi: 10.5770/cgj.27.771. eCollection 2024 Dec.
There is a large literature on the prevalence of disability in older men, but less data on the incidence of new disability.
DESIGN & SETTING: The Manitoba Follow-up Study is a closed cohort study. In 1948, the initial sample was 3,983 men who qualified for air crew training in the Royal Canadian Air Force. In 2004, there were 796 men who were still alive and responded to the annual questionnaire with no missing data, and who did not have disability. The mean age at that time was 84.
We calculated the incidence of new moderate-to-severe disability from 2004 to 2017, calculated the time to disability, and constructed survival analysis models to determine factors which predicted disability.
The incidence of disability increased with the aging of the cohort and ranged from 4% to 12% per year. In unadjusted models, poor self-rated health (SRH), low life satisfaction, a low score on the Physical Component Score (PCS) of the Short Form-36, and the number of chronic conditions were all associated with new disability. In adjusted models, SRH, the PCS, and the number of chronic conditions were associated with new disability.
Global measures of well-being, as well as multimorbidity, predict new disability.
关于老年男性残疾患病率的文献众多，但关于新残疾发生率的数据较少。
曼尼托巴随访研究是一项封闭队列研究。1948年，初始样本为3983名符合加拿大皇家空军空勤人员训练资格的男性。2004年，有796名男性仍在世，他们对年度问卷做出了回应，无缺失数据，且当时没有残疾。当时的平均年龄为84岁。
我们计算了2004年至2017年新的中度至重度残疾的发生率，计算了致残时间，并构建了生存分析模型以确定预测残疾的因素。
残疾发生率随队列年龄增长而增加，每年在4%至12%之间。在未调整模型中，自我健康评价差（SRH）、生活满意度低、简短健康调查问卷（SF-36）身体成分评分（PCS）低以及慢性病数量均与新残疾相关。在调整模型中，SRH、PCS和慢性病数量与新残疾相关。
整体幸福感指标以及多种疾病共患情况可预测新残疾。
