Iterative smoothing for change-point regression function estimation.

Understanding wildfire spread in Canada is critical to promoting forest health and protecting human life and infrastructure. Quantifying fire spread from noisy images, where change-point boundaries separate regions of fire, is critical to accurately estimating fire spread rates. The challenge lies in denoising the fire images and accurately identifying highly non-linear fire lines without smoothing over boundaries. In this paper, we develop an iterative smoothing algorithm for change-point data that utilizes oversmoothed estimates of the underlying data generating process to inform re-smoothing. We demonstrate its effectiveness on simulated one- and two-dimensional change-point data, and robustness to response outliers. Then, we apply the methodology to fire spread images from laboratory micro-fire experiments and show that the regions fuel, burning and burnt-out are smoothed while boundaries are preserved.