Li Z X, Jiang D X, Yu H, Han R Q, Guo J H, Li J, Zhou J Y, Huang S D
Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing100191, China.
Department of Chronic Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing210009, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2024 Nov 10;45(11):1544-1549. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240520-00290.
To assess the influence of extreme temperature events on the mortality risk of nervous system diseases in residents of Jiangsu Province and identify patients with nervous system diseases who are susceptible to extreme temperature events. Acase-crossover design was used to investigate the cumulative lagged effects of extreme temperature events on the mortality risk of nervous system disease in local residents by using the data on causes of death from nervous system diseases in Jiangsu from 2014 to 2020 with conditional logistic regression model. The final definition of extreme temperature events was established using Akaike information criterion. The heat wave was defined as 4 or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures above the 92.5 percentile of annual daily mean temperatures, and the cold spell was defined as 2 or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures below the 10 percentile of annual daily mean temperatures. Furthermore, stratified analyses was conducted to compare the effects of extreme temperature events on mortality risk in populations in different gender, age and marital status groups to identify susceptible populations to extreme temperature event. Statistical results showed that the effect values of heat wave and cold spell on the mortality risk of nervous system diseases all peaked at the 7 day of the cumulative lag, with of 1.60 (95%: 1.44-1.76) and 1.33 (95%: 1.13-1.56), respectively. Heat wave exposure increased mortality risk for individuals with Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases, while cold spell exposure increased the mortality risk for those with Alzheimer's disease. Stratified analyses showed that the mortality risk for nervous system disease and Alzheimer's disease was higher in partnerless population after heat wave exposure. Heat wave and cold spell were associated with increased mortality risks for nervous system disease, highlighting the need for improved early warning systems for extreme temperature event. In the context of heat wave, interventions to protect individuals with nervous system disease should prioritize partnerless population.
评估极端温度事件对江苏省居民神经系统疾病死亡风险的影响，并识别易受极端温度事件影响的神经系统疾病患者。采用病例交叉设计，利用2014年至2020年江苏省神经系统疾病死亡原因数据，通过条件逻辑回归模型研究极端温度事件对当地居民神经系统疾病死亡风险的累积滞后效应。使用赤池信息准则确定极端温度事件的最终定义。热浪定义为连续4天或以上日平均气温高于年日平均气温的第92.5百分位数，寒潮定义为连续2天或以上日平均气温低于年日平均气温的第10百分位数。此外，进行分层分析，比较极端温度事件对不同性别、年龄和婚姻状况人群死亡风险的影响，以识别易受极端温度事件影响的人群。统计结果显示，热浪和寒潮对神经系统疾病死亡风险的影响值均在累积滞后的第7天达到峰值，分别为1.60（95%：1.44 - 1.76）和1.33（95%：1.13 - 1.56）。热浪暴露增加了阿尔茨海默病和帕金森病患者的死亡风险，而寒潮暴露增加了阿尔茨海默病患者的死亡风险。分层分析表明，热浪暴露后，无伴侣人群的神经系统疾病和阿尔茨海默病死亡风险更高。热浪和寒潮与神经系统疾病死亡风险增加相关，凸显了改进极端温度事件早期预警系统的必要性。在热浪背景下，保护神经系统疾病患者的干预措施应优先考虑无伴侣人群。
