A comprehensive nomogram for assessing the prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer patients receiving immunotherapy: a prospective cohort study in China.

OBJECTIVE

In China, lung cancer ranks first in both incidence and mortality among all malignant tumors. Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) constitutes the vast majority of cases, accounting for 80% to 85% of cases. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), either as monotherapies or combined with other treatments, have become the standard first-line therapy for NSCLC patients. This study aimed to establish a nomogram model for NSCLC patients receiving immunotherapy incorporating demographic information, clinical characteristics, and laboratory indicators.

METHODS

From January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2022, a prospective longitudinal cohort study involving 1321 patients with NSCLC undergoing immunotherapy was conducted at Chongqing University Cancer Hospital. Clinical and pathological characteristics, as well as follow-up data, were collected and analyzed. To explore prognostic factors affecting overall survival (OS), a Cox regression model was used to test the significance of various variables. Independent prognostic indicators were identified through multivariate analysis and then used to construct a nomogram prediction model. To validate the accuracy and practicality of this model, the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram.

RESULT

In the final model, 11 variables from the training cohort were identified as independent risk factors for patients with NSCLC: age, KPS score, BMI, diabetes, targeted therapy, Hb, WBC, LDH, CRP, PLR, and LMR. The C-index for OS in the training cohort was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.689-0.745) and 0.704 (95% CI, 0.660-0.750) in the validation cohort. Calibration curves for survival probability showed good concordance between the nomogram predictions and actual observations. The AUCs for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year OS in the training cohort were 0.724, 0.764, and 0.79, respectively, and 0.725, 0.736, and 0.818 in the validation cohort. DCA demonstrated that the nomogram model had a greater overall net benefit.

CONCLUSION

A prognostic model for OS in NSCLC patients receiving immunotherapy was established, providing a simple and reliable tool for predicting patient survival (https://icisnsclc.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/). This model offers valuable guidance for clinicians in making treatment decisions and recommendations.