Wu Chi-Hua, Tsai Pei-Chia
Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Jan;373:123549. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123549. Epub 2024 Dec 4.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a climate phenomenon that can be observed in historical data and has potential connections to global synoptic climatic changes. The AMO can be used to predict climate patterns. This study examined how AMO-induced changes in the westerly jet stream over East Asia could affect the climatological distribution of weather patterns. Cluster analyses were conducted to determine how the AMO influences the frequency of cold surges in winter and typhoons in late summer for the period from 1941 to 2021. We observed inverse changes in the frequency of wintertime wave-train versus blocking cold surges during the negative AMO phase, the former increasing and the latter decreasing. This was associated with a southward shift of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream. Additionally, the southward shift of the westerly jet stream and a more pronounced wave pattern during late summer had a significant effect on the increase in the frequency of typhoons. These findings suggest that long-term predictions of East Asian synoptic climatology on an AMO timescale may be feasible.
大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）是一种可在历史数据中观测到的气候现象，与全球天气气候变化存在潜在联系。AMO可用于预测气候模式。本研究考察了AMO引发的东亚西风急流变化如何影响天气模式的气候分布。进行了聚类分析，以确定1941年至2021年期间AMO如何影响冬季寒潮和夏末台风的发生频率。我们观察到，在AMO负相位期间，冬季波列与阻塞型寒潮的发生频率呈反向变化，前者增加而后者减少。这与对流层上部西风急流向南移动有关。此外，夏季后期西风急流向南移动以及更明显的波动模式对台风发生频率的增加有显著影响。这些发现表明，在AMO时间尺度上对东亚天气气候进行长期预测可能是可行的。
