预测2020年至2030年中国心血管疾病的风险和负担：一项基于全国队列的模拟研究

Forecasting cardiovascular disease risk and burden in China from 2020 to 2030: a simulation study based on a nationwide cohort.

作者信息

Wang Runsi, Wang Yunfeng, Lu Jiapeng, Li Yichong, Wu Chaoqun, Yang Yang, Cui Jianlan, Xu Wei, Song Lijuan, Yang Hao, He Wenyan, Zhang Yan, Zhang Xingyi, Li Xi, Hu Shengshou

机构信息

General Office of the Institute of Clinical Medicine, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.

National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Clinical Research for Cardiovascular Medications, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Heart. 2025 Feb 12;111(5):205-211. doi: 10.1136/heartjnl-2024-324650.

DOI:10.1136/heartjnl-2024-324650

PMID:39638429

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11874356/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a significant public health challenge in China. This study aimed to project the burden of CVD from 2020 to 2030 using a nationwide cohort and to simulate the potential impact of various control measures on morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

An agent-based model was employed to simulate annual CVD incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2030. The effects of different prevention and treatment interventions, modelled on international strategies, were also explored.

RESULTS

The study included 106 259 participants. The annual CVD incidence rate is projected to increase from 0.74% in 2021 to 0.97% by 2030, with age-standardised and sex-standardised rates rising from 0.71% to 0.96%. CVD mortality is expected to rise from 0.39% in 2021 to 0.46% in 2024, after which it will stabilise at 0.44% by 2030. Community-based interventions and improved access to inpatient care are predicted to reduce the projected burden of CVD significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of CVD in China is projected to increase steadily over the next decade, while mortality will plateau after 2024. Comprehensive interventions, including community-based screenings and enhanced healthcare access, could significantly mitigate the CVD burden.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02536456.

摘要

背景

在中国，心血管疾病（CVD）仍然是一项重大的公共卫生挑战。本研究旨在利用全国性队列预测2020年至2030年心血管疾病的负担，并模拟各种控制措施对发病率和死亡率的潜在影响。

方法

采用基于主体的模型来模拟2021年至2030年心血管疾病的年度发病率和死亡率。还探讨了以国际策略为蓝本的不同预防和治疗干预措施的效果。

结果

该研究纳入了106259名参与者。预计心血管疾病的年度发病率将从2021年的0.74%增至2030年的0.97%，年龄标准化率和性别标准化率将从0.71%升至0.96%。预计心血管疾病死亡率将从2021年的0.39%升至2024年的0.46%，之后到2030年将稳定在0.44%。预计基于社区的干预措施和改善住院治疗可及性将显著减轻预计的心血管疾病负担。