Mafra Allini, Laversanne Mathieu, Marcos-Gragera Rafael, Chaves Humberto V S, Mcshane Charlene, Bray Freddie, Znaor Ariana
Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Group (EPI CAN), Department of Precision Health, Luxembourg Institute of Health, Strassen L-1445, Luxembourg.
Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon 69007, France.
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2025 May 1;117(5):907-914. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djae321.
Multiple myeloma (MM) is an important hematological malignancy in older adults, with a relatively poor prognosis. We aimed to present the current global patterns of incidence and mortality from MM, and predict new cancer cases and deaths by 2045.
Estimated numbers of MM cases and deaths and age-standardized (World) incidence and mortality rates per 100 000 people were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database covering 185 countries. Based on the incidence and mortality rates for 2022 and UN population estimates up to 2045, cases and deaths were predicted up to 2045.
Globally, 188 000 MM cases and 121 000 deaths were estimated in 2022. Eastern Asia and Northern America accounted for one-fifth of all cases each (21% and 19% respectively), followed by South-Central Asia (11%), and Western Europe (9%). The incidence rates were higher in men than in women with similar geographical patterns. While the incidence rates were highest in Northern America and Australia/New Zealand (≥4/100 000 for both sexes combined), the highest mortality rates (1.8/100 000) were found in Australia/New Zealand, Northern Europe, and Southern Africa. In the absence of changing rates, the estimated incidence and mortality of MM will increase by 71% and 79%, respectively by 2045 relative to 2022.
Our study highlights the substantial burden and variations in MM incidence and mortality reflecting global disparities in diagnosis and treatment. Improved surveillance and better disease control is needed to mitigate the global impact of MM in the presence of population aging and growth.
多发性骨髓瘤（MM）是老年人中一种重要的血液系统恶性肿瘤，预后相对较差。我们旨在呈现当前MM全球发病率和死亡率模式，并预测到2045年的新发病例和死亡人数。
从覆盖185个国家的GLOBOCAN 2022数据库中获取MM病例和死亡人数估计值以及每10万人的年龄标准化（世界）发病率和死亡率。根据2022年的发病率和死亡率以及联合国对2045年之前的人口估计，预测到2045年的病例数和死亡人数。
2022年全球估计有188000例MM病例和121000例死亡。东亚和北美各占所有病例的五分之一（分别为21%和19%），其次是南亚和中亚（11%）以及西欧（9%）。男性的发病率高于女性，地理模式相似。虽然北美和澳大利亚/新西兰的发病率最高（男女合计均≥4/10万），但澳大利亚/新西兰、北欧和南部非洲的死亡率最高（1.8/10万）。在发病率和死亡率不变的情况下，预计到2045年，MM的发病率和死亡率相对于2022年将分别增加71%和79%。
我们的研究突出了MM发病率和死亡率的巨大负担及差异，反映了全球在诊断和治疗方面的差距。在人口老龄化和增长的情况下，需要加强监测并更好地控制疾病，以减轻MM对全球的影响。
