Michal Victoire, Schmidt Alexandra M, Freitas Laís Picinini, Cruz Oswaldo Gonçalves
Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
School of Public Health, University of Montreal, Montreal, Canada.
Stat Methods Med Res. 2025 Feb;34(2):307-321. doi: 10.1177/09622802241293776. Epub 2024 Dec 10.
In disease mapping, the relative risk of a disease is commonly estimated across different areas within a region of interest. The number of cases in an area is often assumed to follow a Poisson distribution whose mean is decomposed as the product between an offset and the logarithm of the disease's relative risk. The log risk may be written as the sum of fixed effects and latent random effects. A modified Besag-York-Mollié (BYM2) model decomposes each latent effect into a weighted sum of independent and spatial effects. We build on the BYM2 model to allow for heavy-tailed latent effects and accommodate potentially outlying risks, after accounting for the fixed effects. We assume a scale mixture structure wherein the variance of the latent process changes across areas and allows for outlier identification. We propose two prior specifications for this scale mixture parameter. These are compared through various simulation studies and in the analysis of Zika cases from the first (2015-2016) epidemic in Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil. The simulation studies show that the proposed model always performs at least as well as an alternative available in the literature, and often better, both in terms of widely applicable information criterion, mean squared error and of outlier identification. In particular, the proposed parametrisations are more efficient, in terms of outlier detection, when outliers are neighbours. Our analysis of Zika cases finds 23 out of 160 districts of Rio as potential outliers, after accounting for the socio-development index. Our proposed model may help prioritise interventions and identify potential issues in the recording of cases.
在疾病制图中,通常会在感兴趣区域内的不同地区估计疾病的相对风险。一个地区的病例数通常假定服从泊松分布,其均值被分解为一个偏移量与疾病相对风险对数的乘积。对数风险可写成固定效应和潜在随机效应之和。一种改进的贝萨格 - 约克 - 莫利埃(BYM2)模型将每个潜在效应分解为独立效应和空间效应的加权和。在考虑固定效应之后,我们基于BYM2模型进行扩展,以允许出现重尾潜在效应并处理潜在的异常风险。我们假定一种尺度混合结构,其中潜在过程的方差在不同地区会发生变化,并允许识别异常值。我们针对此尺度混合参数提出了两种先验规范。通过各种模拟研究以及对巴西里约热内卢市首次(2015 - 2016年)寨卡疫情病例的分析对这两种规范进行了比较。模拟研究表明,就广泛适用的信息准则、均方误差和异常值识别而言,所提出的模型表现至少与文献中可用的替代模型一样好,而且通常更好。特别是,当异常值是相邻地区时,所提出的参数化在异常值检测方面更有效。我们对寨卡病例的分析发现,在考虑社会发展指数之后,里约160个区中有23个区可能是异常值。我们提出的模型可能有助于确定干预措施的优先级,并识别病例记录中的潜在问题。