Hossain Md Jamal, Sultana Nazia, Das Anwesha, Jui Fariea Nazim, Islam Md Kamrul, Rahman Md Mijanoor, Rahman Mohammad Mafizur
Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh.
Department of Mathematics, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Tangail, Bangladesh.
Front Public Health. 2024 Nov 28;12:1488742. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1488742. eCollection 2024.
Dengue fever is a serious public health issue in Bangladesh, where its incidence rises with the monsoon. Meteorological variables are believed to be responsible factors among others. Therefore, this study examines the effects of meteorological variables (temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. While previous studies have examined the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables using single model approaches, this study employs advanced econometric techniques to capture dynamic interactions. Furthermore, in the case of Bangladesh, this type of analysis is necessary due to the fact that dengue outbreak become one of the major issues. However, the analysis related to this issue is not available.
For estimation purposes, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality tests, Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VDC), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are employed.
Rainfall has a significant impact on dengue incidence compared to temperature and humidity. The Granger causality test demonstrates that rainfall and dengue incidence are causally related unidirectionally. Rainfall can potentially have a short-term and long-term effect on the incidence of dengue, as per the estimates of the VECM model.
These findings will assist policymakers in Bangladesh in developing a dengue fever early warning system depending on climate change. In order to efficiently avoid the spread of dengue in Bangladesh's dengue-endemic urban areas, this study suggests societal monitoring.
登革热是孟加拉国一个严重的公共卫生问题，其发病率随季风上升。气象变量被认为是诸多影响因素之一。因此，本研究考察气象变量（温度、降雨和湿度）对孟加拉国登革热发病率的影响。以往研究使用单一模型方法考察登革热与气象变量之间的关系，而本研究采用先进的计量经济学技术来捕捉动态相互作用。此外，在孟加拉国，由于登革热疫情已成为主要问题之一，此类分析很有必要。然而，目前尚无关于此问题的分析。
为进行估计，采用了增强迪基 - 富勒（ADF）检验、向量自回归（VAR）模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数（IRF）、方差分解（VDC）和向量误差修正模型（VECM）。
与温度和湿度相比，降雨对登革热发病率有显著影响。格兰杰因果检验表明降雨与登革热发病率存在单向因果关系。根据向量误差修正模型的估计，降雨可能对登革热发病率产生短期和长期影响。
这些发现将有助于孟加拉国的政策制定者根据气候变化制定登革热早期预警系统。为有效避免登革热在孟加拉国登革热流行的城市地区传播，本研究建议进行社会监测。
