Johnson O K, Emrich L J, Karakousis C P, Rao U, Greco W R
Cancer. 1985 Mar 1;55(5):1107-17. doi: 10.1002/1097-0142(19850301)55:5<1107::aid-cncr2820550528>3.0.co;2-c.
Potential prognostic factors for survival time, 5-year survival rate, recurrence-free time, and 5-year recurrence-free rate were explored for 262 patients with malignant melanoma of the skin, Stage I, using the long-rank test, proportional hazards (Cox) regression, and linear logistic regression. Breslow's thickness was the most important variable in each analysis. A thinner Breslow's thickness was associated with a better prognosis. After adjusting for Breslow's thickness, sex was the next most important variable in each analysis. Women had a better prognosis than men. After adjusting for Breslow's thickness and sex, there were no additional significant prognostic factors for survival time; Clark's level was significant for 5-year survival rate; the number of mitoses, evidence of regression, and presence of vascular invasion were significant for recurrence-free time; and the presence of vascular invasion and number of mitoses were significant for 5-year recurrence-free rate. It is recommended that in future prospective studies of adjuvant therapy of Stage I melanoma, patients be stratified into treatment groups on the basis of Breslow's thickness and sex.
采用对数秩检验、比例风险（Cox）回归和线性逻辑回归，对262例I期皮肤恶性黑色素瘤患者的生存时间、5年生存率、无复发生存时间和5年无复发率的潜在预后因素进行了探讨。在每项分析中，Breslow厚度都是最重要的变量。Breslow厚度越薄，预后越好。在调整Breslow厚度后，性别是每项分析中的第二重要变量。女性的预后比男性好。在调整Breslow厚度和性别后，生存时间没有其他显著的预后因素；Clark分级对5年生存率有显著影响；有丝分裂数、消退证据和血管侵犯对无复发生存时间有显著影响；血管侵犯的存在和有丝分裂数对5年无复发率有显著影响。建议在未来I期黑色素瘤辅助治疗的前瞻性研究中，根据Breslow厚度和性别将患者分层到治疗组。
