Albath Elianne A, Greifeneder Rainer, Douglas Karen M, Cichocka Aleksandra, Marques Mathew D, Wilson Marc S, Kerr John R, Sibley Chris G, Osborne Danny
University of Basel, Switzerland.
University of Kent, UK.
Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2024 Dec 13:1461672241292841. doi: 10.1177/01461672241292841.
Although conspiracy belief may arise from a frustration of psychological needs, research has yet to investigate these relationships over time. Using four annual waves of longitudinal panel data in New Zealand (2019-2022; = 55,269), we examined the relationship between four psychological needs (namely belonging, control, meaning in life, and self-esteem) and conspiracy belief. Results from four random-intercept cross-lagged panel models reveal stable between-person effects indicating that those whose core needs are less satisfied tend to exhibit higher levels of conspiracy belief across time. Within-person analyses further identify small cross-lagged effects within individuals: in levels of control and belonging, as well as in levels of meaning in life, temporally precede increases in conspiracy belief. Within-person fluctuations in conspiracy belief also have negative cross-lagged associations with control (but not with the three other needs). These data provide novel insights into the psychological factors that foster conspiracy belief.
尽管阴谋论信念可能源于心理需求的受挫，但研究尚未对这些关系随时间的变化进行调查。利用新西兰的四个年度纵向面板数据（2019 - 2022年；样本量 = 55,269），我们研究了四种心理需求（即归属感、掌控感、生活意义和自尊）与阴谋论信念之间的关系。四个随机截距交叉滞后面板模型的结果揭示了稳定的个体间效应，表明那些核心需求较难得到满足的人在不同时间往往表现出更高水平的阴谋论信念。个体内分析进一步确定了个体内部的小交叉滞后效应：掌控感和归属感水平的变化，以及生活意义水平的变化，在时间上先于阴谋论信念的增加。阴谋论信念的个体内波动也与掌控感存在负向交叉滞后关联（但与其他三种需求不存在这种关联）。这些数据为促成阴谋论信念的心理因素提供了新的见解。
