Osnabrück University, Germany.
FernUniversität in Hagen, Germany.
Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2023 Feb;49(2):167-179. doi: 10.1177/01461672211060965. Epub 2021 Dec 29.
Research suggests that conspiracy beliefs are adopted because they promise to reduce anxiety, uncertainty, and threat. However, little research has investigated whether conspiracy beliefs actually fulfill these promises. We conducted two longitudinal studies ( = 405, = 1,012) to examine how conspiracy beliefs result from, and in turn influence, anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat. Random intercept cross-lagged panel analyses indicate that people who were, on average, more anxious, uncertainty averse, and existentially threatened held stronger conspiracy beliefs. Increases in conspiracy beliefs were either unrelated to changes in anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat (Study 2), or even predicted increases in these variables (Study 1). In both studies, increases in conspiracy beliefs predicted subsequent increases in conspiracy beliefs, suggesting a self-reinforcing circle. We conclude that conspiracy beliefs likely do not have beneficial consequences, but may even reinforce the negative experience of anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat.
研究表明，人们之所以会接受阴谋论，是因为它们承诺可以减轻焦虑、不确定性和威胁。然而，很少有研究调查阴谋论是否真的能实现这些承诺。我们进行了两项纵向研究（n=405，n=1,012），以检验阴谋论是如何产生的，以及反过来又如何影响焦虑、不确定性规避和生存威胁。随机截距交叉滞后面板分析表明，平均而言，焦虑程度更高、不确定性规避更强、生存威胁感更强的人，其阴谋信念也更强。阴谋信念的增加与焦虑、不确定性规避和生存威胁的变化无关（研究 2），甚至预测了这些变量的增加（研究 1）。在这两项研究中，阴谋信念的增加都预示着随后的阴谋信念增加，这表明存在一个自我强化的循环。我们的结论是，阴谋论可能没有有益的后果，甚至可能会加剧焦虑、不确定性规避和生存威胁的负面体验。
