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审视公共巴士与出租车碰撞事故的伤害严重程度:一种采用均值异质性的随机参数逻辑模型。

Examining the injury severity of public bus-taxi crashes: a random parameters logistic model with heterogeneity in means approach.

作者信息

Zeng Qiang, Li Zikang, Wong Qianfang, Wong S C, Xu Pengpeng

机构信息

School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.

Key Laboratory of Highway Engineering of Ministry of Education, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha, Hunan, China.

出版信息

Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2025 Mar;32(1):12-24. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2024.2440939. Epub 2024 Dec 13.

Abstract

Public buses and taxis play crucial roles in urban transportation. Ensuring their safety is of paramount importance to develop sustainable communities. This study investigated the significant factors contributing to the injury severity of bus-taxi crashes, using the crash data recorded by the police in Hong Kong from 2009 to 2019. To account for the unobserved heterogeneity, the random parameters logistic model with heterogeneity in means was elaborately developed. The results revealed that taxi driver age, bus age, traffic congestion, and taxi driver behavior had significantly heterogeneous effects on the injury severity of bus-taxi crashes and that the mean value of the random parameter for severe traffic congestion was likely to increase if the taxi's age was <5 years. Taxi driver gender, rainfall, time of day, crash location, bus driver behavior, and collision type were found to significantly affect the bus-taxi crash severity. Specifically, female taxi drivers, old taxis, rainfall, midnight, improper manipulation of bus and taxi drivers, head-on and sideswipe collision types, and non-intersections were associated with a higher likelihood of fatal and severe crashes. Based on our findings, targeted countermeasures were proposed to mitigate the injury severity of bus-taxi crashes.

摘要

公共巴士和出租车在城市交通中发挥着至关重要的作用。确保它们的安全对于发展可持续社区至关重要。本研究利用香港警方在2009年至2019年期间记录的撞车数据,调查了导致巴士与出租车碰撞事故伤害严重程度的重要因素。为了考虑未观察到的异质性,精心开发了具有均值异质性的随机参数逻辑模型。结果显示,出租车司机年龄、巴士车龄、交通拥堵以及出租车司机行为对巴士与出租车碰撞事故的伤害严重程度具有显著的异质性影响,并且如果出租车车龄小于5年,严重交通拥堵随机参数的均值可能会增加。研究发现,出租车司机性别、降雨量、一天中的时间、撞车地点、巴士司机行为以及碰撞类型对巴士与出租车碰撞事故的严重程度有显著影响。具体而言,女性出租车司机、旧出租车、降雨、午夜、巴士和出租车司机操作不当、正面碰撞和擦撞碰撞类型以及非十字路口与致命和严重撞车的较高可能性相关。基于我们的研究结果,提出了有针对性的对策以减轻巴士与出租车碰撞事故的伤害严重程度。

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