Siddique Mohammad Abu Baker, Mahalder Balaram, Haque Mohammad Mahfujul, Shohan Mobin Hossain, Biswas Jatish Chandra, Akhtar Shahrina, Ahammad A K Shakur
Department of Fisheries Biology and Genetics, Faculty of Fisheries, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh.
Department of Aquaculture, Faculty of Fisheries, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh.
Heliyon. 2024 Feb 24;10(5):e27111. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27111. eCollection 2024 Mar 15.
Tilapia farming has expanded rapidly in Bangladesh over the years thanks to a suitable climate for aquaculture and a consistently increasing demand for the fish rich in vitamins and minerals. A clear picture regarding the future trend of tilapia production in Bangladesh is still not available, however. The purpose of this study was to estimate parameters that fit into the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for forecasting tilapia production in Bangladesh. This was accomplished by calibrating and validating the ARIMA model taking into account the lowest values of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), graphical arrangements of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) plots. The best model derived was ARIMA (1, 1, 1), which showed an upward trend of tilapia production since 2006 to date and predicted a similar trend until the year 2040. If this trend continues, the yearly tilapia outturn in the country may reach 690,000 MT, with an upper limit of 1.15 million MT and lower limit of 0.23 million MT, reflecting a substantial increase of around 118% over that produced in 2021. The results of this study will serve as a valuable resource for researchers, decision-makers, academics, and tilapia entrepreneurs, enabling them to develop effective action plans to optimize tilapia production in Bangladesh and strategize for the future integration of tilapia within the country.
多年来，由于适宜水产养殖的气候以及对富含维生素和矿物质的罗非鱼的需求持续增长，孟加拉国的罗非鱼养殖迅速扩张。然而，关于孟加拉国罗非鱼产量未来趋势的清晰图景仍未可知。本研究的目的是估计适合自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型的参数，以预测孟加拉国的罗非鱼产量。这是通过校准和验证ARIMA模型来实现的，同时考虑赤池信息准则（AIC）和贝叶斯信息准则（BIC）的最低值、自相关函数（ACF）和偏自相关函数（PACF）图的图形排列。得出的最佳模型是ARIMA(1, 1, 1)，该模型显示自2006年至今罗非鱼产量呈上升趋势，并预测到2040年将保持类似趋势。如果这一趋势持续下去，该国罗非鱼的年产量可能达到69万吨，上限为115万吨，下限为23万吨，比2021年的产量大幅增长约118%。本研究结果将为研究人员、决策者、学者和罗非鱼企业家提供宝贵资源，使他们能够制定有效的行动计划，以优化孟加拉国的罗非鱼生产，并为罗非鱼在该国的未来整合制定战略。
