Halladay J, Visontay R, Slade T, Devine E K, Smout S, Andrews J L, Champion K E, Teesson M, Sunderland M
School of Nursing, McMaster University, Ontario, Canada.
The Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Psychol Med. 2024 Dec 16;54(16):1-15. doi: 10.1017/S0033291724002502.
The relationship between adolescent alcohol use and emotional problems remains unclear and contradictory. These inconsistencies may in part be due to differences in the measurement and operationalization of alcohol use and emotional problems across studies, as well as confounder selection and missing data decisions. This study explores the associations between common specifications of adolescent alcohol use and emotional problems in a large sample of adolescents.
A multiverse analysis (also known as specification curve analysis or vibration of effects) was done with 7680 unique model specifications in a large longitudinal sample of 6639 Australian adolescents (aged ~14.7-15.7, 2021-2022).
While alcohol use and emotional problems nearly universally co-occurred in minimally adjusted cross-sectional models (98-99%), the operationalization of emotional problems, temporality of prospective relationships, and choice of confounders substantially impacted findings. Emotional problems appeared to predict later alcohol use more-so than the reverse, depression-focused measures yielded more consistent associations with alcohol use than anxiety-focused measures, and certain confounders (i.e. conduct, ADHD, smoking) explained most of the associations between adolescent alcohol use and emotional problems. Missing data decisions and whether outcomes were modelled continuously dichotomously had minimal impact on findings.
While adolescent alcohol use and emotional problems commonly co-occur, inconsistencies in the magnitude, direction, and significance of effects are closely tied to researcher decisions that are often made arbitrarily.
青少年饮酒与情绪问题之间的关系仍不明确且存在矛盾。这些不一致部分可能是由于不同研究中饮酒和情绪问题的测量与操作定义存在差异，以及混杂因素的选择和缺失数据处理方式不同。本研究在大量青少年样本中探讨了青少年饮酒的常见指标与情绪问题之间的关联。
对6639名澳大利亚青少年（年龄约14.7 - 15.7岁，2021 - 2022年）的大型纵向样本进行了多宇宙分析（也称为规格曲线分析或效应波动分析），共产生7680个独特的模型规格。
虽然在调整最少的横断面模型中，饮酒和情绪问题几乎普遍同时出现（98 - 99%），但情绪问题的操作定义、前瞻性关系的时间顺序以及混杂因素的选择对研究结果有很大影响。情绪问题似乎比相反情况更能预测后来的饮酒行为，以抑郁为重点的测量方法与饮酒的关联比以焦虑为重点的测量方法更一致，某些混杂因素（即品行、注意力缺陷多动障碍、吸烟）解释了青少年饮酒与情绪问题之间的大部分关联。缺失数据处理方式以及结果是连续建模还是二分法建模对研究结果的影响最小。
虽然青少年饮酒和情绪问题通常同时出现，但效应的大小、方向和显著性方面的不一致与研究人员往往随意做出的决定密切相关。
