Wen Zhe-Nan, Miao Qi-Yu, Chen Jiang-Ru, Wu Shui-Ping, He Li-Xiong, Jiang Bing-Qi, Liu Yi-Jing, Huang Zhi
Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, China.
Center for Marine Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology, College of Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2025 Jan;32(1):298-313. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-35772-8. Epub 2024 Dec 17.
Vehicle electrification is an important means of reducing urban air pollution. However, vehicle electrification does not necessarily reduce particulate matter (PM and PM) and heavy metals (HM) due to the increase in non-exhaust emissions. In this study, we established the emission inventories of PM, PM, and their associated heavy metals (PM-HM and PM-HM) from the on-road vehicles in the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou metropolitan area in southeastern China between 2015 and 2060. In the base year 2021, brake wear emissions account for 66.6% of PM-HM and 76.9% of PM-HM, much higher than the contributions of exhaust emissions to PM-HM (12.4%) and PM-HM (6.2%). Light-duty passenger vehicles, heavy-duty trucks, and light-duty trucks are the three main contributors to PM and HM. HM emissions have a high emission density in urban areas. In the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, HM emissions continue to increase from 2021 to 2060 due to the combined effects of the stricter emission standards and the growth of vehicle population, while the health risk of HM shows an initial decrease and then an increasing trend. Compared with BAU, moderate and aggressive electrification scenarios show a significant reduction in PM-HM emissions between 2030 and 2060, but not in PM-HM emissions. Further increases in vehicle electrification will bring forward the peak of PM-HM emissions, with the potential to reduce adverse health effects. In the process of vehicle electrification, the reduction of heavy metal emissions from the braking system should be prioritized in order to effectively reduce traffic pollution.
车辆电气化是减少城市空气污染的重要手段。然而，由于非尾气排放的增加，车辆电气化并不一定会减少颗粒物（PM和PM）和重金属（HM）。在本研究中，我们建立了2015年至2060年间中国东南部厦门-漳州-泉州大都市区道路车辆的PM、PM及其相关重金属（PM-HM和PM-HM）排放清单。在基准年2021年，制动磨损排放占PM-HM的66.6%，占PM-HM的76.9%，远高于尾气排放对PM-HM（12.4%）和PM-HM（6.2%）的贡献。轻型乘用车、重型卡车和轻型卡车是PM和HM的三大主要排放源。HM排放在城市地区具有较高的排放密度。在照常营业（BAU）情景下，由于排放标准的收紧和车辆保有量的增长，HM排放在2021年至2060年间持续增加，而HM的健康风险则呈现先下降后上升的趋势。与BAU相比，适度和激进的电气化情景显示，2030年至2060年间PM-HM排放量显著减少，但PM-HM排放量没有减少。车辆电气化的进一步提高将使PM-HM排放峰值提前出现，有可能减少对健康的不利影响。在车辆电气化过程中，应优先减少制动系统的重金属排放，以有效减少交通污染。
