Yoong Joanne, Schnecke Volker, Aekplakorn Wichai, Bandgar Tushar, Butt Jamal Rashad, Romano Jack Garcia Uranga, Kalra Sanjay, Khadgawat Rajesh, Kilov Gary, Kim Kyoung-Kon, Lee Sang Yeoup, Mohan Viswanathan, Proietto Joseph, Oldfield Brian
Research for Impact, 378 Alexandra Road, Block 29, Level 2, Singapore, 159964, Singapore.
Novo Nordisk A/S, Søborg, Denmark.
BMC Glob Public Health. 2024 Oct 8;2(1):68. doi: 10.1186/s44263-024-00094-x.
The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region includes a significant proportion of the global population currently living with overweight and obesity. This modelling analysis was conducted to quantify the incidence of obesity-related comorbidities and change in obesity-related costs over 10 years with a hypothetical 10% weight loss in Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and India.
An epidemiological-economic model was used to describe current prevalence and direct medical costs of ten obesity-related comorbidities, including type 2 diabetes and hypertension, in adults aged 20-69 years living with obesity, and estimate incidence and costs over 10 years. Incidence reduction and the associated savings by 2032 were then estimated for a 10% weight-loss scenario.
The total estimated medical costs for the ten obesity-related comorbidities in 2022 were 2.9, 7.5, 10.2, and 23.3 billion USD in Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and India, respectively. Costs increase to 6.9, 18.4, 23.5, and 44.3 billion USD in 2032, if insufficient action is taken. A 10% weight reduction would result in estimated savings of 0.3, 1.2, 2.2, and 3.0 billion USD in Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and India, respectively, in 2032, with cumulative savings over the 10-year period of 1.8, 7.0, 13.0, and 17.4 billion USD. Incidence of comorbidities were estimated to rise less in the weight-loss scenario.
The financial, societal, and health benefits of a substantial but achievable 10% weight loss in adults living with obesity, and the consequences of insufficient action, are pronounced in the APAC region. To achieve sustained weight loss in the real world, policy actions for addressing barriers to obesity management are required.
亚太地区居住着全球相当比例的超重和肥胖人口。本模型分析旨在量化澳大利亚、韩国、泰国和印度肥胖相关合并症的发病率以及假设体重减轻10%情况下10年内肥胖相关成本的变化。
采用流行病学-经济模型描述20-69岁肥胖成年人中包括2型糖尿病和高血压在内的十种肥胖相关合并症的当前患病率和直接医疗成本，并估计10年内的发病率和成本。然后估计到2032年体重减轻10%情况下发病率的降低和相关节省费用。
2022年澳大利亚、韩国、泰国和印度十种肥胖相关合并症的估计医疗总成本分别为29亿美元、75亿美元、102亿美元和233亿美元。如果不采取足够行动，到2032年成本将增至69亿美元、184亿美元、235亿美元和443亿美元。体重减轻10%预计将使澳大利亚、韩国、泰国和印度在2032年分别节省03亿美元、12亿美元、22亿美元和30亿美元，10年累计节省18亿美元、70亿美元、130亿美元和174亿美元。在体重减轻的情况下，合并症的发病率预计上升幅度较小。
肥胖成年人实现可观且可实现的10%体重减轻所带来的经济、社会和健康益处，以及行动不足的后果，在亚太地区十分显著。要在现实世界中实现持续体重减轻，需要采取政策行动来消除肥胖管理的障碍。
