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自千禧年之交以来匈牙利儿童癌症死亡率模式,包括新冠疫情的两年。

Patterns of Childhood Cancer Mortality in Hungary Since the Turn of the Millennium, Including the Two Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

作者信息

Németh Kristóf, Nyári Tibor András, Lantos Tamás

机构信息

Biological Institute, University of Szeged, Közép fasor 52, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.

Department of Medical Physics and Informatics, University of Szeged, Korányi fasor 9, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.

出版信息

Cancers (Basel). 2024 Nov 26;16(23):3961. doi: 10.3390/cancers16233961.

Abstract

: We aimed to analyse the pattern of childhood cancer mortality among children under 15 years in Hungary between 2001 and 2021. In addition, annual and cyclical trends were examined. : The number of deaths was obtained from the nationwide population register over the study period by gender, age group, and region for each year. Data were analysed using the Poisson regression method and cyclic trends were investigated using the Walter-Elwood method. : Overall, 14,931 childhood deaths (1092 from cancers) were registered between 2001 and 2021. The cancer mortality risk was significantly higher among boys than girls. A significantly decreasing trend was detected for yearly childhood cancer mortality rates, with an annual IRR of 0.976 (95% CI: 0.966-0.986; < 0.001). This tendency was not influenced by the pandemic. However, different patterns of seasonal variation were revealed in childhood cancer mortality rates during 2020-2021 and 2001-2019. : The annual trend in childhood cancer mortality was not affected by the coronavirus pandemic. However, there was a different pattern of childhood cancer mortality during the pandemic and non-pandemic period in Hungary. Considering the seasonal variation in monthly childhood cancer mortality rates, we hypothesized that environmental factors might play an important role in the aetiology of childhood cancer deaths.

摘要

我们旨在分析2001年至2021年间匈牙利15岁以下儿童的癌症死亡模式。此外,还研究了年度和周期性趋势。在研究期间,每年按性别、年龄组和地区从全国人口登记册中获取死亡人数。使用泊松回归方法分析数据,并使用沃尔特 - 埃尔伍德方法研究周期性趋势。总体而言,2001年至2021年间登记了14931例儿童死亡(其中1092例死于癌症)。男孩的癌症死亡风险显著高于女孩。儿童癌症年死亡率呈显著下降趋势,年发病率比为0.976(95%置信区间:0.966 - 0.986;P < 0.001)。这种趋势不受疫情影响。然而,2020 - 2021年和2001 - 2019年期间儿童癌症死亡率呈现出不同的季节性变化模式。儿童癌症死亡率的年度趋势不受冠状病毒大流行的影响。然而,匈牙利在大流行期间和非大流行期间儿童癌症死亡率存在不同模式。考虑到儿童癌症月死亡率的季节性变化,我们推测环境因素可能在儿童癌症死亡病因中起重要作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7305/11640402/cd0425a937f9/cancers-16-03961-g001.jpg

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