Wu Keyi, Fan Weidong, Wei Jing, Lu Jianyun, Ma Xiaowei, Yuan Zelin, Huang Zhiwei, Zhong Qi, Huang Yining, Zou Fei, Wu Xianbo
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University (Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research), No.1023-1063, Shatai South Road, Baiyun District, Guangzhou 510515, China.
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
Ecotoxicol Environ Saf. 2025 Jan 15;290:117540. doi: 10.1016/j.ecoenv.2024.117540. Epub 2024 Dec 16.
Although the link between fine particulate matter (PM) and influenza-like illness (ILI) is well established, the effect of the chemical constituents of PM on ILI remains unclear. This study aims to explore this effect in Guangzhou, China.
Daily data on ILI cases, PM levels, and specific PM constituents (black carbon [BC], chlorine [Cl], ammonia [NH], nitrate [NO], and sulfate [SO]) in Guangzhou, China, were collected for the period of 2014-2019. Additionally, data on gaseous pollutants and meteorological conditions were obtained. By using quasi-Poisson regression models, the association between exposure to PM and its constituents and ILI risk was estimated. Stratified subgroup analyses were performed by gender, age, and season to explore in depth the effects of these factors on disease risk.
Single-pollutant modeling results showed that an increase of one interquartile range (IQR) in Cl, SO, PM, NH, BC, and NO corresponded to relative risks of ILI of 1.046 (95 % CI: 1.004, 1.090) (lag03), 1.098 (95 % CI: 1.058, 1.139) (lag01), 1.091 (95 % CI: 1.054, 1.130) (lag02), 1.093 (95 % CI: 1.049, 1.138) (lag02), 1.111 (95 % CI: 1.074, 1.150) (lag03), and 1.103 (95 % CI: 1.061, 1.146) (lag03), respectively. Notably, the association between ILI and BC remained significant even after adjusting for PM mass. Subgroup analyses indicated that individuals aged 5-14 and 15-24 years may exhibit higher sensitivity to BC and Cl exposure than other individuals. Furthermore, stronger associations were observed during the cold season than during the warm season.
Results showed that the mass and constituents of PM were significantly correlated with ILI. Specifically, the carbonaceous fractions of PM were found to have a pronounced effect on ILI. These findings underscore the importance of implementing effective measures to reduce the emission of specific sources of PM constituents to mitigate the risk of ILI. Nevertheless, limitations such as potential exposure misclassification and regional constraints should be considered.
尽管细颗粒物（PM）与流感样疾病（ILI）之间的联系已得到充分证实，但PM的化学成分对ILI的影响仍不清楚。本研究旨在探讨中国广州的这种影响。
收集了中国广州2014 - 2019年期间ILI病例、PM水平以及特定PM成分（黑碳[BC]、氯[Cl]、氨[NH₃]、硝酸盐[NO₃⁻]和硫酸盐[SO₄²⁻]）的每日数据。此外，还获取了气态污染物和气象条件的数据。通过使用准泊松回归模型，估计了暴露于PM及其成分与ILI风险之间的关联。按性别、年龄和季节进行分层亚组分析，以深入探讨这些因素对疾病风险的影响。
单污染物建模结果显示，Cl、SO₄²⁻、PM、NH₃、BC和NO₃⁻每增加一个四分位数间距（IQR），对应的ILI相对风险分别为1.046（95%CI：1.004，1.090）（滞后0 - 3天）、1.098（95%CI：1.058，1.139）（滞后0 - 第1天）、1.091（95%CI：1.054，1.130）（滞后0 - 第2天）、1.093（95%CI：1.049，1.138）（滞后0 - 第2天）、1.111（95%CI：1.074，1.150）（滞后0 - 3天）和1.103（95%CI：1.061，1.146）（滞后0 - 3天）。值得注意的是，即使在调整了PM质量后，ILI与BC之间的关联仍然显著。亚组分析表明，5 - 14岁和15 - 24岁的个体可能比其他个体对BC和Cl暴露表现出更高的敏感性。此外，在寒冷季节观察到的关联比温暖季节更强。
结果表明，PM的质量和成分与ILI显著相关。具体而言，发现PM的碳质部分对ILI有显著影响。这些发现强调了采取有效措施减少特定PM成分源排放以降低ILI风险的重要性。然而，应考虑潜在暴露错误分类和区域限制等局限性。
