Concordant Signal of Genetic Variation Across Marker Densities in the Desert Annual Is Linked With Timing of Winter Precipitation.

Climate change coupled with large-scale surface disturbances necessitate active restoration strategies to promote resilient and genetically diverse native plant communities. However, scarcity of native plant materials hinders restoration efforts, leading practitioners to choose from potentially viable but nonlocal seed sources. Genome scans for genetic variation linked with selective environmental gradients have become a useful tool in such efforts, allowing rapid delineation of seed transfer zones along with predictions of genomic vulnerability to climate change. When properly applied, genome scans can reduce the risk of maladaptation due to mismatches between seed source and planting site. However, results are rarely replicated among complimentary data sources. Here, we compared RAD-seq datasets with 819 and 2699 SNPs (in 625 and 356 individuals, respectively) from the Mojave Desert winter annual . Overall, we found that the datasets consistently characterized both neutral population structure and genetic-environmental associations. Ancestry analyses indicated consistent spatial genetic structuring into four regional populations. We also detected a marked signal of isolation by resistance (IBR), wherein spatial genetic structure was better explained by habitat resistance than by geographic distance. Potentially adaptive loci identified from genome scans were associated with the same environmental gradients-fall precipitation, winter minimum temperature, and precipitation timing-regardless of dataset. Paired with our finding that habitat resistance best explained genetic divergence, our results suggest that isolation of populations within environmentally similar habitats-and subsequent local adaption along gradients parallel to these habitats-drive genome-wide divergence in this species. Moreover, strong genetic associations with winter precipitation timing, along with forecasted shifts in precipitation regime due to midcentury climate change, could impact future population dynamics, habitat distribution, and genetic connectivity for populations within the Mojave Desert.