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整合作物与乳制品生产系统:探索实现环境目标的不同策略。

Integrating crop and dairy production systems: Exploring different strategies to achieve environmental targets.

作者信息

Alderkamp L M, Klootwijk C W, Schut A G T, van der Linden A, van Middelaar C E, Taube F

机构信息

Wageningen University & Research, Animal Production Systems Group, 6706 WD Wageningen, the Netherlands.

Wageningen Livestock Research, Animal Nutrition, 6706 WD Wageningen, the Netherlands.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2025 Jan 1;958:177990. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177990. Epub 2024 Dec 17.

DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177990
PMID:39693660
Abstract

The integration between crop and livestock production systems (ICLS) at regional level is seen as a pathway for more sustainable food production. The objective was to assess the effects on farm structure, economic performance and environmental impact of an ICLS with varying constraints on agricultural emissions, changes in land use and a lower external input use as means to achieve environmental targets. A linear optimization model was used for economic optimization of ICLS under different scenarios for the case of crop and dairy production systems on sandy soils in the Netherlands. The model was combined with a farm nutrient balance and life-cycle assessment to determine the impact on nutrient surpluses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Environmental costs for society were calculated based on available prices for GHG emissions and nutrient surpluses. As a reference, specialized crop and livestock systems without integration were optimized. An economically driven ICLS under current Dutch policy without additional constraints was modelled. This strategy was economically interesting and increased gross margins, but the environmental costs for society were higher when compared to the reference systems without integration. Thereafter, four scenarios were modelled representing varying constraints as a means to achieve environmental targets. These scenarios were hypothesized to lower the environmental costs for society by targeting a reduction in agricultural emissions, lower external input use or changes in land use. Stricter constraints on greenhouse gas (i.e., a reduction of at least 30%) and ammonia (i.e., a reduction of at least 37%) emissions and de-intensification strategies (e.g., lower milk production per cow, reduced concentrate intake per cow and lower mineral N fertilizer use in the dairy sub-system) reduced gross margins of the ICLS up to €34,395 yr. Furthermore, it resulted in a substantial reduction in the gross margin for the dairy sub-system, while gross margins for the crop sub-system substantially increased. However, these scenarios reduced environmental impacts and associated costs for society substantially up to €60,045 yr. For a scenario with land use constraints (i.e., stricter constraints on area proportions for potatoes and sugar beets and an increase in the area used for permanent grassland) there were still economic benefits while there was also reduction in the environmental costs of production. The results help to further design and assess the potential contribution of ICLS to improve the sustainability of the current farming system.

摘要

区域层面的作物与畜牧生产系统整合(ICLS)被视为实现更可持续粮食生产的一条途径。其目标是评估一个对农业排放有不同限制、土地利用有变化且外部投入使用较少以实现环境目标的ICLS对农场结构、经济绩效和环境影响的作用。针对荷兰沙质土壤上的作物和奶牛生产系统,使用线性优化模型对不同情景下的ICLS进行经济优化。该模型与农场养分平衡和生命周期评估相结合,以确定对养分盈余和温室气体(GHG)排放的影响。基于温室气体排放和养分盈余的现有价格计算社会环境成本。作为参考,对未整合的专业化作物和畜牧系统进行了优化。对当前荷兰政策下无额外限制的经济驱动型ICLS进行了建模。该策略在经济上具有吸引力且提高了毛利润,但与未整合的参考系统相比,社会环境成本更高。此后,对代表不同限制的四种情景进行了建模,作为实现环境目标的一种手段。这些情景假设通过减少农业排放、降低外部投入使用或改变土地利用来降低社会环境成本。对温室气体(即至少减少30%)和氨(即至少减少37%)排放的更严格限制以及去集约化策略(例如,每头奶牛的牛奶产量降低、每头奶牛的精饲料摄入量减少以及奶牛子系统中矿物氮肥使用量降低)使ICLS的毛利润每年减少高达34,395欧元。此外,这导致奶牛子系统的毛利润大幅下降,而作物子系统的毛利润大幅增加。然而,这些情景大幅降低了环境影响以及社会相关成本,每年高达60,045欧元。对于一个有土地利用限制的情景(即对土豆和甜菜的种植面积比例有更严格限制,以及用于永久草地的面积增加),仍然有经济效益,同时生产的环境成本也有所降低。研究结果有助于进一步设计和评估ICLS对提高当前农业系统可持续性的潜在贡献。

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