Biomarkers of cellular senescence and major health outcomes in older adults.

The geroscience hypothesis proposes that underlying biological processes, such as the accumulation of senescent cells, have deleterious effects on multiple tissues and increase the risk of many chronic conditions with aging. Senescent cells produce heterogenous biomarkers, also called senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP). Circulating concentrations of senescence biomarkers may reflect an underlying burden of senescent cells in various tissues. Plasma levels of these proteins have been associated with increased mortality and poorer physical function. The associations of them with the incidence of major age-related conditions including heart failure, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and dementia, have not been studied. We measured 35 senescence biomarkers in baseline plasma samples from 1678 participants aged 70-79 years old in the longitudinal Health ABC cohort study. Clinical outcomes were ascertained and validated over an average 11.5 year follow-up. In models adjusted for age, sex, and race, higher levels of most of senescence biomarkers were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, mobility limitation, and heart failure. Several were also associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and dementia. Very few were associated with the risk of cancer. Proteins that were selected by Lasso regression for each outcome that commonly included GDF15 and IL6, significantly improved the prediction of mortality, mobility limitation, and heart failure compared with age, sex, and race alone. These results indicate that levels of senescence biomarkers predict an increased risk of several age-related clinical outcomes and may identify individuals most likely to benefit from senotherapeutics.