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大气河流引发暖冬和极端高温事件。

Atmospheric rivers cause warm winters and extreme heat events.

作者信息

Scholz Serena R, Lora Juan M

机构信息

Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, CT, USA.

出版信息

Nature. 2024 Dec;636(8043):640-646. doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-08238-7. Epub 2024 Dec 18.

DOI:10.1038/s41586-024-08238-7
PMID:39695213
Abstract

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow regions of intense water vapour transport in the Earth's atmosphere. These transient phenomena carry water from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes and polar regions, making up the majority of polewards moisture transport and exerting control on the precipitation and water resources in many regions. In addition to transporting moisture, ARs also transport heat, but the impact of this transport on global near-surface air temperatures has not yet been characterized. Here we show that seasons with more frequent ARs also have warmer than average temperatures in many mid-latitude regions, and that AR events are associated with temperature anomalies of 5-10 °C above the climatological mean. This is due to anomalous horizontal transport and convergence of sensible heat and moisture in the lower atmosphere, which increases both downward sensible heat flux and downwelling long-wave radiation at the surface. On an hourly timescale, over 70% of extreme warm-temperature anomalies occur within ARs in large portions of the mid-latitudes, and ARs are associated with moist and compound heatwaves in many regions worldwide, suggesting that consideration of ARs may improve predictive capability for certain extreme heat events. Our results demonstrate that ARs significantly impact air temperatures on a wide array of timescales, and that they may play a wider role in global energy transport than previously recognized.

摘要

大气河流(ARs)是地球大气中水汽强烈输送的狭窄区域。这些瞬变现象将水从亚热带输送到中纬度和极地地区,构成了向极地水汽输送的大部分,并对许多地区的降水和水资源产生影响。除了输送水汽外,大气河流还输送热量,但这种输送对全球近地表气温的影响尚未得到描述。在这里,我们表明,大气河流更频繁出现的季节,许多中纬度地区的气温也高于平均水平,而且大气河流事件与高于气候平均值5-10°C的温度异常有关。这是由于低层大气中感热和水汽的异常水平输送及辐合,增加了地表向下的感热通量和向下的长波辐射。在每小时的时间尺度上,在大部分中纬度地区,超过70%的极端暖温异常发生在大气河流期间,并且大气河流与全球许多地区的潮湿和复合型热浪有关,这表明考虑大气河流可能会提高对某些极端高温事件的预测能力。我们的结果表明,大气河流在广泛的时间尺度上对气温有显著影响,并且它们在全球能量输送中可能发挥比以前认识到的更广泛的作用。

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Quantifying the physical processes leading to atmospheric hot extremes at a global scale.在全球尺度上量化导致大气极端高温的物理过程。
Nat Geosci. 2023;16(3):210-216. doi: 10.1038/s41561-023-01126-1. Epub 2023 Feb 20.
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The unprecedented 2016-17 Arctic sea ice growth season: the crucial role of atmospheric rivers and longwave fluxes.
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Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Vapor Transport and Precipitation to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Increases.大气河流水汽输送和降水对海表温度均匀升高的敏感性。
J Geophys Res Atmos. 2020 Nov 16;125(21):e2020JD033421. doi: 10.1029/2020JD033421. Epub 2020 Oct 29.