Pharmacy in the twenty-first century: results of a strategic-planning conference.

The results of a strategic-planning conference that focused on what pharmacy in the United States would be like in the year 2010 are presented. The 50-plus conferees considered papers by 14 health-care thought-leaders and then, meeting in small groups, made projections for pharmacy based on four possible future scenarios: Continued Growth, Decline and Stagnation, Disciplined Society, and Transformation. Among the specific issues addressed in each scenario were the nature and quantity of pharmaceutical services sought, total drug volume, classes of drugs, and pharmacy practice location, pharmacy personnel needs, and which outcomes are most likely to occur. The Continued Growth option was thought to have the best chance of occurring. Major factors expected to influence pharmaceutical services over the next 25 years included an increasingly elderly population, more widespread health promotion and wellness activities, a decline in health-care expenditures as a proportion of Gross National Product, and an increase in home remedies. It was felt that most pharmacists will practice as part of mega-health-care enterprises or chain pharmacies.