Aganovic Amar, Buonanno Giorgio, Cao Guangyu, Delmaar Christian, Kurnitski Jarek, Mikszewski Alex, Morawska Lidia, Vermeulen Lucie C, Wargocki Pawel
Department of Automation and Process Engineering, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, FR, Italy.
Infect Dis Model. 2024 Nov 28;10(1):338-352. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.11.003. eCollection 2025 Mar.
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted the importance of understanding transmission modes and implementing effective mitigation strategies. Recognizing airborne transmission as a primary route has reshaped public health measures, emphasizing the need to optimize indoor environments to reduce risks. Numerous tools have emerged to assess airborne infection risks in enclosed spaces, providing valuable resources for public health authorities, researchers, and the general public. However, comparing the outputs of these tools is challenging because of variations in assumptions, mathematical models, and data sources. We conducted a comprehensive review, comparing digital airborne infection risk calculators using standardized building-specific input parameters. These tools generally produce similar and consistent outputs with identical inputs. Variations mainly stem from model selection and the handling of unsteady viral load conditions. Differences in source term calculations, including particle emission concentrations and respiratory activity, also contribute to disparities. These differences are minor compared to the inherent uncertainties in risk assessment. Consistency in results increases with higher ventilation rates, showing a robust trend across models. However, inconsistencies arose in the inclusion of face masks, often due to the lack of detailed efficiency values. Despite some differences, the overall consistency underscores the value of these tools in public health strategy and infectious disease control. We also compared some of the model's efforts to conduct retrospective assessments against reported transmission events by assuming input parameters to the models so that the calculated risk would closely fit the original outbreak infection rate. Thus, validating these models against past outbreaks remains challenging because of the lack of essential input information from observed events. This comparative analysis demonstrates the importance of transparent data sources and justifiable model assumptions to enhance the reliability and precision of risk assessments.
由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)引起的2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行,凸显了了解传播模式和实施有效缓解策略的重要性。认识到空气传播是主要传播途径,重塑了公共卫生措施,强调了优化室内环境以降低风险的必要性。出现了许多工具来评估封闭空间中的空气传播感染风险,为公共卫生当局、研究人员和公众提供了宝贵资源。然而,由于假设、数学模型和数据来源的差异,比较这些工具的输出具有挑战性。我们进行了一项全面综述,使用标准化的特定建筑输入参数比较数字空气传播感染风险计算器。这些工具在输入相同的情况下通常会产生相似且一致的输出。差异主要源于模型选择和不稳定病毒载量条件的处理。源项计算的差异,包括颗粒物排放浓度和呼吸活动,也导致了差异。与风险评估中固有的不确定性相比,这些差异较小。随着通风率的提高,结果的一致性增加,各模型呈现出强劲的趋势。然而,在口罩的纳入方面出现了不一致,这通常是由于缺乏详细的效率值。尽管存在一些差异,但总体一致性强调了这些工具在公共卫生策略和传染病控制中的价值。我们还通过假设模型的输入参数,比较了一些模型针对报告的传播事件进行回顾性评估的努力,以使计算出 的风险与原始疫情感染率紧密匹配。因此,由于缺乏来自观察事件的基本输入信息,根据过去的疫情对这些模型进行验证仍然具有挑战性。这种比较分析表明了透明数据源和合理模型假设对于提高风险评估的可靠性和精确性的重要性。