Zhang YanJing, Hu Jie, Wang ChenBin, Wan YaQiong, Ji MuLan, Ma FangZhou, Lu YiQing
Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Environmental Environment, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Biosafety, Nanjing, 210042, China.
Foreign Environmental Cooperation Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing, 100035, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 20;14(1):30579. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82164-6.
Invasive alien plants pose a significant threat to biodiversity and the agricultural economy. The invasive weed (Ammannia coccinea) competes with rice in paddy fields, potentially threatening rice production. Despite the crucial need to estimate the global geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of A. coccinea for effective early warning, control strategies, and global rice security, relevant research remains scarce. This study utilized the Biomod2 platform, which integrates multiple single models into ensemble model, incorporating environmental and species data to analyze the distribution range shifts of A. coccinea under current and future climate scenarios. It also quantified and analyzed shifts in the species' ecological niche across these climate scenarios. The results indicated that the potential suitable areas for A. coccinea were mainly in Southern North America, northern and south-eastern South America, south-western Europe, the Middle East, central Africa, western Asia, south-eastern Asia, with a gradual increase in mid-high suitability habitat over time and radiation levels. While the overall ecological niche of A. coccinea remains stable, minor shifts are expected under future conditions. Temperature, precipitation, and the human impact index were the key factors influencing the future distribution of A. coccinea. Climate change contributes to the expansion of A. coccinea's highly suitable areas and shifts its ecological niche. Organizations efforts should focus on preventing the spread of A. coccinea in regions where its potential distribution overlaps with key rice production areas. The findings of this study provide critical insights into the global distribution and ecological niche dynamics of A. coccinea, aiding in the development of early warning and control strategies to mitigate its impact on biodiversity, agriculture, and particularly rice production under future climate scenarios.
外来入侵植物对生物多样性和农业经济构成重大威胁。入侵杂草（红球花）与稻田中的水稻竞争，可能威胁水稻生产。尽管迫切需要估计红球花的全球地理分布和生态位动态，以进行有效的早期预警、制定控制策略和保障全球水稻安全，但相关研究仍然匮乏。本研究利用Biomod2平台，该平台将多个单一模型整合为集成模型，结合环境和物种数据，分析红球花在当前和未来气候情景下的分布范围变化。它还量化并分析了这些气候情景下该物种生态位的变化。结果表明，红球花的潜在适宜区域主要在北美南部、南美洲北部和东南部、欧洲西南部、中东、中非、西亚、东南亚，随着时间推移和辐射水平的变化，中高适宜性栖息地逐渐增加。虽然红球花的整体生态位保持稳定，但预计在未来条件下会有微小变化。温度、降水和人类影响指数是影响红球花未来分布的关键因素。气候变化导致红球花高度适宜区域的扩大并使其生态位发生变化。相关组织应致力于防止红球花在其潜在分布与主要水稻产区重叠的地区扩散。本研究结果为红球花的全球分布和生态位动态提供了关键见解，有助于制定早期预警和控制策略，以减轻其在未来气候情景下对生物多样性、农业，特别是水稻生产的影响。
