Gao Qing, Yang Hui, Yu Zhao, Wang Qi, Wang Shuangqing, Zhan Bingdong
School of Public Health, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.
Infectious disease Control Department, Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.
Ann Med. 2025 Dec;57(1):2443565. doi: 10.1080/07853890.2024.2443565. Epub 2024 Dec 23.
The global seasonal influenza activity has decreased during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as reducing gatherings and wearing masks, can have varying impacts on the spread of influenza. We aim to analyse the basic characteristics, epidemiology and space-time clustering of influenza in Quzhou city before and after the COVID-19 pandemic based on five years of surveillance data.
Influenza case incidence data from 2018-2023 were collected and organized in Quzhou City to analyse the space-time aggregation of influenza incidence before and after COVID-19 pandemic through global spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan analysis methods.
The annual average fluctuation of influenza in Quzhou City from 2018-2023 was large, with gradual decreases in 2019-2020, 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, all of which showed obvious winter and spring peaks; The highest incidence rate in 2022-2023, with a bimodal distribution. The majority of the population is under 15 years of age, accounting for more than 70% of the population. The population classification is dominated by students, nursery children and children in the diaspora. In 2020-2021, the cases in the student group of the 5-14 years old population declined. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of influenza incidence rate in Quzhou City in each year of 2019-2023Moran's > 0 and < 0.05. Space-time scan analysis of the aggregation area is located in Longyou County and the township streets on the border of urban counties, and the number of aggregation areas decreased significantly in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022.
The COVID-19 pandemic has an important impact on changes in influenza incidence levels and spatial and temporal epidemiologic aggregation patterns. Influenza incidence in Quzhou City fluctuates widely, with large changes in the age and occupational composition ratios of the incidence population, and influenza incidence presents a more pronounced spatial correlation and aggregation.
在2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行期间，全球季节性流感活动有所减少。减少聚集和佩戴口罩等非药物干预措施（NPIs）对流感传播可能产生不同影响。我们旨在基于五年的监测数据，分析衢州市在COVID-19大流行前后流感的基本特征、流行病学及时空聚集情况。
收集并整理了衢州市2018 - 2023年的流感病例发病数据，通过全局空间自相关分析及时空扫描分析方法，分析COVID-19大流行前后流感发病率的时空聚集情况。
2018 - 2023年衢州市流感年平均波动较大，在2019 - 2020年、2020 - 2021年和2021 - 2022年呈逐渐下降趋势，均呈现明显的冬春季高峰；2022 - 2023年发病率最高，呈双峰分布。发病群体以15岁以下人群为主，占总发病人数的70%以上。人群分类以学生、托幼儿童及散居儿童为主。2020 - 2021年，5 - 14岁人群学生组病例数下降。2019 - 2023年各年度衢州市流感发病率的全局空间自相关分析莫兰指数>0且<0.05。聚集区的时空扫描分析显示位于龙游县及市辖区边界的乡镇街道，且在2020 - 2021年和2021 - 2022年聚集区数量显著减少。
COVID-19大流行对流感发病率水平及时空流行病学聚集模式的变化有重要影响。衢州市流感发病率波动较大，发病人群的年龄及职业构成比例变化较大，流感发病率呈现较为明显的空间相关性和聚集性。
