College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China.
Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Nov 27;18(11):e0280617. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280617. eCollection 2023.
Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease that commonly affects people and has an important impact on public health. Based on influenza incidence data from 103 counties in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2019, this study used time series analysis and geospatial analysis to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the influenza epidemic and its influencing factors. The results reveal significant spatial-temporal clustering of the influenza epidemic in Hubei Province. Influenza mainly occurs in winter and spring of each year (from December to March of the next year), with the highest incidence rate observed in 2019 and an overall upward trend in recent years. There were significant spatial and urban-rural differences in influenza prevalence in Hubei Province, with the eastern region being more seriously affected than the central and western regions, and the urban regions more seriously affected than the rural region. Hubei's influenza epidemic showed an obvious spatial agglomeration distribution from 2009 to 2019, with the strongest clustering in winter. The hot spot areas of interannual variation in influenza were mainly distributed in eastern and western Hubei, and the cold spot areas were distributed in north-central Hubei. In addition, the cold hot spot areas of influenza epidemics varied from season to season. The seasonal changes in influenza prevalence in Hubei Province are mainly governed by meteorological factors, such as temperature, sunshine, precipitation, humidity, and wind speed. Low temperature, less rain, less sunshine, low wind speed and humid weather will increase the risk of contracting influenza; the interannual changes and spatial differentiation of influenza are mainly influenced by socioeconomic factors, such as road density, number of health technicians per 1,000 population, urbanization rate and population density. The strength of influenza's influencing factors in Hubei Province exhibits significant spatial variation, but in general, the formation of spatial variation of influenza in Hubei Province is still the result of the joint action of socioeconomic factors and natural meteorological factors. Understanding the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of influenza in Hubei Province and its influencing factors can provide a reasonable decision-making basis for influenza prevention and control and public health development in Hubei Province and can also effectively improve the scientific understanding of the public with respect to influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases to reduce the influenza incidence, which also has reference significance for the prevention and control of influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases in other countries or regions.
流感是一种常见于人群的急性呼吸道传染病，对公众健康有重要影响。本研究基于 2009-2019 年湖北省 103 个县的流感发病率数据，采用时间序列分析和地理空间分析方法，分析了流感疫情的时空分布特征及其影响因素。结果表明，湖北省流感疫情存在明显的时空聚集性。流感主要发生在每年的冬春季（当年 12 月至次年 3 月），2019 年发病率最高，近年来呈上升趋势。湖北省流感流行存在明显的城乡差异，东部地区较严重，城区较农村严重。2009-2019 年，湖北省流感疫情呈明显的空间集聚分布，冬季集聚性最强。流感年际变异的热点地区主要分布在湖北省东部和西部，冷点地区分布在湖北省中北部。此外，流感疫情的冷热点地区随季节而变化。湖北省流感发病率的季节性变化主要受气象因素（如温度、日照、降水、湿度和风速）的影响。低温、少雨、少日照、低风速和潮湿的天气会增加患流感的风险；湖北省流感的年际变化和空间差异主要受社会经济因素（如道路密度、每千人口卫生技术人员数、城市化率和人口密度）的影响。湖北省流感影响因素的强度存在显著的空间差异，但总体而言，湖北省流感空间变异的形成仍是社会经济因素和自然气象因素共同作用的结果。了解湖北省流感的时空分布特征及其影响因素，可为湖北省流感防控和公共卫生事业发展提供合理的决策依据，也能有效提高公众对流感等呼吸道传染病的科学认识，降低流感发病率，对其他国家或地区的流感等呼吸道传染病防控也具有参考意义。
