Climate matching models for Ceratapion basicorne (Coleoptera: Apionidae), a biocontrol agent of yellow starthistle.

Ceratapion basicorne (Illiger) (Coleoptera: Apionidae), a weevil native to Europe and western Asia, shows promise for enhancing the control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis L.), an invasive annual forb in the western United States. However, a paucity of data on this biocontrol agent's environmental constraints has made it difficult to assess the suitability of potential release locations. Climate matching models were developed for C. basicorne to help identify areas of the western United States with similar climates to the source area of breeding colonies being used for releases (home location). The models used climate variables derived from daily estimates of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture for a 30-yr period spanning 1991-2020 at 1 km2 resolution. Of the areas where C. solstitialis is known to occur, the Central California Foothills, Eastern Cascades Foothills, Columbia Plateau, and mountainous parts of northcentral Utah had the most similar climates to the home location. Of these areas, the Eastern Cascades foothills in northeastern California and Wasatch Range in Utah occurred at a similar latitude as the home location, which may be important to consider if C. basicorne has photoperiodic diapause. The least similar climates occurred in wet coastal regions, high-elevation (cold) mountains, and hot deserts; however, C. solstitialis has not been detected in most of these areas. The development of process-based models for predicting the establishment of this agent will require a more detailed understanding of the agent's requirements for development and survival.