Ghasemi Mostafa, Gilani Mohammad Amin, Amirioun Mohammad Hassan
Centre of Excellence for Power System Automation and Operation, Department of Electrical Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Electrical Engineering, Shahreza Campus, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
Risk Anal. 2025 Jul;45(7):1716-1728. doi: 10.1111/risa.17695. Epub 2024 Dec 26.
This article presents a planning framework to improve the weather-related resilience of natural gas-dependent electricity distribution systems. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programing model. In the first stage, the measures for distribution line hardening, gas-fired distributed generation (DG) placement, electrical energy storage resource allocation, and tie-switch placement are determined. The second stage minimizes the electricity distribution system load shedding in realized hurricanes to achieve a compromise between operational benefits and investment costs when the dependence of electricity distribution system on the natural gas exists. The proposed stochastic model considers random failures of electricity distribution system lines and random errors in forecasting the load demand. The Monte Carlo simulation is employed to generate multiple scenarios for defining the uncertainties of electricity distribution system. For the sake of simplicity, weather-related outages of natural gas pipelines are considered deterministic. The nonlinear natural gas constraints are linearized and incorporated into the stochastic optimization model. The proposed framework was successfully implemented on an interconnected energy system composed of a 33-bus electricity distribution system and a 14-node natural gas distribution network. Numerical results of the defined case studies and a devised comparative study validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework as well.
本文提出了一个规划框架,以提高依赖天然气的配电系统的天气适应性。该问题被表述为一个两阶段随机混合整数线性规划模型。在第一阶段,确定配电线路加固、燃气分布式发电(DG)布置、电能存储资源分配和联络开关布置的措施。第二阶段将已发生飓风时配电系统的甩负荷量降至最低,以便在配电系统依赖天然气的情况下,在运营效益和投资成本之间达成妥协。所提出的随机模型考虑了配电系统线路的随机故障以及负荷需求预测中的随机误差。采用蒙特卡罗模拟生成多个场景,以定义配电系统的不确定性。为简单起见,将天然气管道与天气相关的停电视为确定性情况。将非线性天然气约束线性化并纳入随机优化模型。所提出的框架已成功应用于一个由33节点配电系统和14节点天然气分配网络组成的互联能源系统。定义的案例研究和设计的对比研究的数值结果也验证了所提出框架的有效性。