Peperkoorn Leonard S, Hill Russell A, Barton Robert A, Pollet Thomas V
Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, VU Amsterdam, Van Der Boechorststraat 7, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Department of Anthropology, Durham University, Durham, UK.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):30822. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-81373-3.
Research has previously documented that across a range of Olympic combat sports, wearing red is associated with a higher probability of winning contests, especially when bouts are close. Yet, the hypothesis for a red advantage has not been systematically examined across multiple tournaments. Here, we report 6,589 contest outcomes for boxing, taekwondo, and wrestling from seven Summer Olympic Games (1996-2020) and nine World Boxing Championships (2005-2021). Using meta-analytic techniques, we found 50.5% wins by red for the overall data, which was not a statistically significant bias. Analyses of close contests resulted in 51.5% red wins, also not significantly different from the null expectation of equal proportions. Before 2005, however, when the red advantage was first reported and prior to changes in particular tournament rules, there was some support for a red advantage in close contests, with 56.8% of bouts won by red. It is possible that knowledge of the effect, as well as rule changes in each of the sports, have reduced the chances of a small effect being manifested, leading to the disappearance of the red advantage in competition results.
此前的研究表明，在一系列奥林匹克格斗运动中，身着红色与比赛获胜的概率更高相关，尤其是在比赛势均力敌的时候。然而，红色优势这一假设尚未在多个赛事中得到系统检验。在此，我们报告了来自七届夏季奥运会（1996年至2020年）和九届世界拳击锦标赛（2005年至2021年）的拳击、跆拳道和摔跤项目的6589场比赛结果。使用元分析技术，我们发现总体数据中红色方获胜率为50.5%，这在统计学上并非显著偏差。对势均力敌比赛的分析显示红色方获胜率为51.5%，同样与均等比例的零预期无显著差异。然而，在2005年之前，当红色优势首次被报道且在特定赛事规则改变之前，在势均力敌的比赛中存在一些对红色优势的支持，红色方赢得了56.8%的比赛。有可能是对这种效应的认知以及每项运动中的规则变化减少了小效应显现的机会，并导致比赛结果中红色优势的消失。
