Wilkinson Max, Mhana Najwa, Wilson Miles P, Foulger Gillian R, Tezel Timur, Gluyas Jon G
Foulger Consulting Ltd., Durham, UK.
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):30846. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-81632-3.
Claims of industrially induced seismicity vary from indisputable to unpersuasive and yet the veracity of industrial induction is vital for regulatory and operational practice. Assessment schemes have been developed in response to this need. We report here an initial assessment of the reliability of all globally known cases of proposed human-induced earthquakes and invite specialists on particular cases to refine these results. 1235 cases were assessed, requiring over 1000 h of work. From the 881 cases for which scorable evidence is available, we class 87% as 'Confidently Induced', 10% as 'Probably Induced', 2% as 'Equivocal' and < 1% as 'Confidently Natural'. The most seismogenic activities are fracking, research, geothermal, water reservoir impoundment, conventional oil and gas. Least seismogenic activities are construction, deep penetrating bombs, coal bed methane. 354 cases (29%) lack enough information to be assessable. Future work could include applying data mining techniques including natural language processing and AI to uncover new evidence. Future best practice for rapid assessment of cases would ideally involve an independent panel of scientists who rapidly apply a questionnaire scheme, reach consensus, and inform a response.
关于工业诱发地震活动的说法不一，从无可争议到难以令人信服，但工业诱发的真实性对于监管和运营实践至关重要。为此已制定了评估方案。我们在此报告对全球所有已知的人为诱发地震案例可靠性的初步评估，并邀请特定案例的专家完善这些结果。共评估了1235个案例，耗时超过1000小时。在881个有可评分证据的案例中，我们将87%归类为“确定诱发”，10%为“可能诱发”，2%为“不明确”，不到1%为“确定自然发生”。最易引发地震的活动是水力压裂、研究、地热、水库蓄水、常规油气开采。最不易引发地震的活动是建筑施工、深穿透炸弹、煤层气开采。354个案例（29%）缺乏足够信息无法进行评估。未来的工作可包括应用数据挖掘技术，包括自然语言处理和人工智能，以发现新证据。未来对案例进行快速评估的最佳做法理想情况下应包括一个独立的科学家小组，他们迅速应用问卷调查方案，达成共识并提供应对建议。
