Yu Ting, Sang Peidong
School of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan, 250101, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):31427. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82966-8.
This study seeks to improve urban supply chain management and collaborative governance in the context of public health emergencies (PHEs) by integrating fuzzy theory with the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) algorithm. By combining these two approaches, an early warning mechanism for supply chain risks during PHEs is developed. The study employs Matlab software to simulate supply chain risks, incorporating fuzzy inference techniques with the adaptive data modeling capabilities of neural networks for both training and testing. The results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively identifies factors contributing to supply chain deterioration, with a warning error as low as 0.001, significantly enhancing the accuracy and timeliness of demand forecasting. The BPNN algorithm, through its self-learning and adaptive features, facilitates dynamic optimization and precise scheduling across various stages of the supply chain. This capability is particularly valuable in addressing challenges associated with sudden demand spikes and resource allocation. As a result, the mechanism is able to accurately and promptly identify adverse trends in the supply chain, thereby enhancing the efficiency and flexibility of urban emergency responses, mitigating risks, and offering both theoretical and practical contributions to urban collaborative governance.
本研究旨在通过将模糊理论与反向传播神经网络(BPNN)算法相结合,在公共卫生突发事件(PHEs)背景下改善城市供应链管理与协同治理。通过结合这两种方法,开发了一种针对公共卫生突发事件期间供应链风险的预警机制。该研究采用Matlab软件模拟供应链风险,将模糊推理技术与神经网络的自适应数据建模能力相结合用于训练和测试。结果表明,所提出的模型能有效识别导致供应链恶化的因素,预警误差低至0.001显著提高了需求预测的准确性和及时性。BPNN算法凭借其自学习和自适应特性,有助于在供应链各个阶段进行动态优化和精确调度。这种能力在应对与突发需求高峰和资源分配相关的挑战时尤为宝贵。因此,该机制能够准确、及时地识别供应链中的不利趋势,从而提高城市应急响应的效率和灵活性,降低风险,并为城市协同治理提供理论和实践贡献。
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