A framework of ecological security patterns in arid and semi-arid regions considering differences socioeconomic scenarios in ecological risk: Case of Loess Plateau, China.

Understanding the establishment of ecological security patterns in arid and semi-arid regions is critical for global ecological risk prevention, control, and sustainable development. Nonetheless, there remains a relative deficiency in ecological risk assessment and construction of Ecological Security Patterns (ESP) in these areas, along with insufficient verification regarding the changes in ecological security patterns under diverse scenarios. This study employs Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to identify ecological sources and utilizes circuit theory alongside Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) to delineate ecological corridors. Additionally, the framework integrates the impacts of human activities on ecosystems and accounts for the disparities and uncertainties associated with future scenarios in constructing ESP. Results indicate discrepancies between the least risky pathway (SSP5-8.5) and the most stable pathway (SSP1-2.6) on the Loess Plateau, with varying manifestations of ecological risk. This study identified 28 large-scale ecological sources covering 65,642.745 km, including 10 core sources exceeding 2000 km; delineated 65 ecological corridors totaling 6695.061 km, encompassing 19 core corridors spanning 4091.452 km. The spatial overlap between ecological corridors and high-risk areas presents challenges to constructing ecological security patterns. In consideration of future uncertainties, we propose an ecological pattern optimization strategy incorporating "three barriers, five corridors, three protections, two zones, two belts, and multiple scattered points". This strategy emphasizes the potential of combining primary planting corridors, returning farmland to forests, and planning ecological buffer zones to address ecological risks. The study aims to enhance ecological security levels and readiness to confront ecological challenges in arid and semi-arid regions.