Kang Zhuoran, Yang Daming, Shen Pengfei
School of Minging and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 10076, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 30;14(1):31611. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-75346-9.
The height of the water-conducting fracture zones (WCFZ) is crucial for ensuring safe coal mining beneath aquifers, particularly considering the secondary development of the WCFZ in upper seams due to repeated mining in close distance coal seams. Accurately predicting this height is essential for mine safety, groundwater protection, and optimal coal resource use. This study compiles extensive measured data from various mining areas in China to analyze the coupling relationship between the WCFZ development height and six influencing factors: mining thickness, mining depth, coal seam spacing, hard rock lithology ratio, and the slope length of working face. Using principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, we derived the combined weights of these factors. We developed a prediction model based on multiple regression analysis that incorporates the weighted influences of these factors, further refined into a multivariate nonlinear regression model for greater accuracy. Compared against a multivariate linear regression model, empirical formulas, and measured results, our model demonstrated higher accuracy, stability in both absolute and relative errors, and practical applicability. It was successfully applied and validated on the 100,501 working face of Nanyaotou Coal Mine in Shanxi Province, offering a new scientific approach for predicting the WCFZ.
导水裂隙带（WCFZ）的高度对于确保含水层下煤炭安全开采至关重要，特别是考虑到近距离煤层重复开采导致上部煤层中导水裂隙带的二次发育。准确预测这一高度对于矿山安全、地下水保护和煤炭资源的优化利用至关重要。本研究收集了中国各矿区的大量实测数据，分析了导水裂隙带发育高度与开采厚度、开采深度、煤层间距、硬岩岩性比例和工作面倾斜长度这六个影响因素之间的耦合关系。通过主成分分析和模糊综合评价，得出了这些因素的综合权重。基于多元回归分析开发了一个预测模型，该模型纳入了这些因素的加权影响，并进一步细化为多元非线性回归模型以提高准确性。与多元线性回归模型、经验公式和实测结果相比，我们的模型在绝对误差和相对误差方面均具有更高的准确性、稳定性和实际适用性。该模型在山西省南窑头煤矿100501工作面成功应用并得到验证，为预测导水裂隙带提供了一种新的科学方法。
