Lindenmayer David, Scheele Ben C, Bowd Elle, Evans Maldwyn John
Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Ecol Lett. 2024 Dec;27(12):e14531. doi: 10.1111/ele.14531.
Quantifying temporal changes in species occurrence has been a key part of ecology since its inception. We quantified multidecadal site occupancy trajectories for 18 bird species in four independent long-term, large-scale studies (571 sites, ~1000 km latitude) in Australia. We found evidence of a year × long-term study interaction in the best-fitting models for 14 of the 18 species analysed, with differences in the temporal trajectories of the same species in multiple studies consistent with non-stationarity. Non-stationarity patterns in occupancy were not related to the distance from a species niche centroid; species in locations further from their niche centroid did not demonstrate differing temporal trajectories to those closer to their niche centroid. Furthermore, temporal trajectories of species were not associated with climatic values for each study relative to their niche. Our findings demonstrate the need for multiple long-term studies across a species range, especially when tailoring conservation decisions for populations.
自生态学诞生以来，量化物种出现的时间变化一直是其核心内容。我们在澳大利亚的四项独立长期大规模研究（571个地点，约1000公里纬度范围）中，对18种鸟类的数十年站点占用轨迹进行了量化。在分析的18个物种中的14个的最佳拟合模型中，我们发现了年份×长期研究交互作用的证据，多个研究中同一物种的时间轨迹差异与非平稳性一致。占用的非平稳模式与距物种生态位中心的距离无关；距离其生态位中心较远位置的物种与较近位置的物种相比，并未表现出不同的时间轨迹。此外，物种的时间轨迹与每项研究相对于其生态位的气候值无关。我们的研究结果表明，需要在物种分布范围内进行多项长期研究，尤其是在为种群制定保护决策时。
