Li Lidong, Awada Tala, Shi Yeyin, Jin Virginia L, Kaiser Michael
University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA.
Agroecosystem Management Research Unit, USDA-Agricultural Research Service (ARS), Lincoln, Nebraska, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Jan;31(1):e70015. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70015.
Agriculture serves as both a source and a sink of global greenhouse gases (GHGs), with agricultural intensification continuing to contribute to GHG emissions. Climate-smart agriculture, encompassing both nature- and technology-based actions, offers promising solutions to mitigate GHG emissions. We synthesized global data, between 1990 and 2021, from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations to analyze the impacts of agricultural activities on global GHG emissions from agricultural land, using structural equation modeling. We then obtained predictive estimates of agricultural GHG emissions for the future period of 2022-2050 using deep-learning models. The FAO data show that, from 1990 to 2021, global livestock numbers, inorganic nitrogen (N) fertilizer use, crop residue, and irrigation area increased by 27%, 47%, 49%, and 37%, respectively. The increased livestock numbers contributed to the increases in CH and NO emissions, while inorganic N fertilizer, crop residue, and irrigation mainly contributed to the increases in NO emissions. Emissions of CO decreased because of a 29% reduction in net forest loss. As a result of the reduced deforestation emissions, the overall agricultural GHG emissions declined from 11.50 to 10.89 GtCOeq from 1990 to 2021 despite the increases in livestock numbers, inorganic N fertilizer, crop residue, and irrigation. Looking ahead, our model predicts that if current agricultural trends persist, GHG emissions will rise to 11.82 ± 0.07 GtCOeq in 2050. However, maintaining agricultural GHG emissions at the 2021 level through 2050 is possible if the rate of reduction in net forest loss is doubled. Furthermore, if the rate is tripled, agricultural GHG emissions can be limited to 9.85 ± 0.07 GtCOeq in 2050. Our findings suggest that reductions in agricultural GHG emissions, alongside sustainable agricultural intensification and climate-smart agricultural practices, can be achieved through parallel efforts emphasizing accelerated forest conservation.
农业既是全球温室气体的一个排放源，也是一个吸收汇，农业集约化持续导致温室气体排放。气候智能型农业涵盖基于自然和技术的行动，为减少温室气体排放提供了有前景的解决方案。我们综合了联合国粮食及农业组织（粮农组织）1990年至2021年的全球数据，采用结构方程模型分析农业活动对农业用地全球温室气体排放的影响。然后，我们使用深度学习模型获得了2022年至2050年未来期间农业温室气体排放的预测估计值。粮农组织数据显示，1990年至2021年期间，全球牲畜数量、无机氮肥使用量、作物残茬和灌溉面积分别增加了27%、47%、49%和37%。牲畜数量增加导致CH和NO排放量增加，而无机氮肥、作物残茬和灌溉主要导致NO排放量增加。由于森林净损失减少了29%，CO排放量下降。尽管牲畜数量、无机氮肥、作物残茬和灌溉面积增加，但由于森林砍伐排放量减少，1990年至2021年农业温室气体总排放量从11.50 GtCOeq降至10.89 GtCOeq。展望未来，我们的模型预测，如果当前农业趋势持续下去，2050年温室气体排放量将升至11.82±0.07 GtCOeq。然而，如果森林净损失的减少速度翻倍，到2050年将农业温室气体排放量维持在2021年的水平是可能的。此外，如果该速度增至三倍，2050年农业温室气体排放量可限制在9.85±0.07 GtCOeq。我们的研究结果表明，通过强调加速森林保护的并行努力，可实现农业温室气体排放的减少，同时实现可持续农业集约化和气候智能型农业实践。
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