Gao Yuan, He Canfei, Li Zhibin, Ling Yingkai, Zhang Lingyu, Cui Yutong
Department of Urban and Rural Planning, School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China.
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Jan;373:123949. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123949. Epub 2024 Dec 30.
Cropland changes are crucial aspects of land-use/land-cover changes (LUCC), which profoundly influence agricultural sustainability and terrestrial ecosystem health. In the context of dynamic shifts within the natural environment, coupled with the evolution of agricultural practices and the transformation of agrarian systems and policies, the trajectory of farmland alteration has exhibited significant divergence across various nations and regions. This article delves into the intriguing phenomenon of China's cropland migrating up to mountains and down to wetlands and analyses its spatiotemporal pattern evolution from 1990 to 2020. Then the study identified the driving forces behind this migration from diverse perspectives encompassing natural factors, socioeconomic factors, cropland conditions, and landscape patterns. A fixed-effect panel analysis is employed to quantify the impacts of this phenomenon on food security and ecological environment quality. The findings reveal that over the past three decades, croplands moving to mountains and wetlands have been conspicuous across the country, with a considerable area of 187,862.9 square kilometres, representing a substantial 37.15% of the newly developed arable land. In the temporal pattern, it's exhibiting a clear three-stage characteristic of "prosperity-decline-recovery". Geographically, the northeast (NER) and northwest (NWR) agricultural regions have witnessed the largest cumulative areas of cropland moving to mountains and wetlands. These cropland changes are influenced not only by natural factors and the endowment of cropland but also by economic and financial factors. Furthermore, whether cropland moves up to the mountains or down to the wetlands exerts a significantly negative effect on ecological security and food security. This study aims to provide policy implications for regional cropland protection and agricultural sustainable development.
耕地变化是土地利用/土地覆盖变化（LUCC）的关键方面，深刻影响着农业可持续性和陆地生态系统健康。在自然环境动态变化的背景下，加上农业实践的演变以及农业系统和政策的转型，不同国家和地区的农田变化轨迹呈现出显著差异。本文深入探讨了中国耕地向山上迁移和向湿地转移这一有趣现象，并分析了其1990年至2020年的时空格局演变。然后，该研究从自然因素、社会经济因素、耕地条件和景观格局等不同角度确定了这种迁移背后的驱动因素。采用固定效应面板分析来量化这一现象对粮食安全和生态环境质量的影响。研究结果表明，在过去三十年中，全国范围内耕地向山地和湿地转移的情况十分明显，面积达187862.9平方公里，占新增耕地面积的37.15%。在时间格局上，呈现出明显的“繁荣-衰退-恢复”三个阶段特征。在地理上，东北（NER）和西北（NWR）农业区耕地向山地和湿地转移的累计面积最大。这些耕地变化不仅受到自然因素和耕地禀赋的影响，还受到经济和金融因素的影响。此外，耕地无论是向山上转移还是向湿地转移，都会对生态安全和粮食安全产生显著的负面影响。本研究旨在为区域耕地保护和农业可持续发展提供政策启示。
