Zhao Yuhan, Ma Yuxia, Liu Zongrui, Wan Ziyue, Jiao Haoran, Feng Fengliu, Cheng Bowen
Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang, 111100, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 2;15(1):449. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-84757-7.
The impact of O on the respiratory system is a significant global problem. Nevertheless, there is insufficient information about its impact on respiratory disorders in northeast China. In this study, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) to determine the correlation between O concentrations and respiratory deaths based on the daily meteorological data, pollutant concentrations, and respiratory deaths from 2014 to 2016 in Shenyang, a typical city in northeast China. Single and cumulative lag structures and seasonal modification were considered to investigate the link between O exposure and respiratory mortality in Shenyang, northeast China. Synergic effects of O and meteorological factors were also evaluated. Results indicated that there was a significant correlation between O and the number of deaths caused by respiratory diseases on a daily basis, regardless of the time delay between exposure and the occurrence of the deaths. A 10 µg/m rise in O concentration was associated with a 0.85% (95% CI 0.18-1.52%) increase in respiratory death at a lag of 1 day and a 1.43% (95% CI 0.40-2.48%) increase at a cumulative lag of 3 days. Stratified analyses revealed that O had a greater impact on health under warm conditions compared to cold settings. Additionally, O had a more pronounced effect on females than on males. The results for this study could provide some scientific guidance for local environment and health departments.
臭氧对呼吸系统的影响是一个重大的全球性问题。然而，关于其对中国东北地区呼吸系统疾病影响的信息却十分匮乏。在本研究中，我们基于中国东北地区典型城市沈阳2014年至2016年的每日气象数据、污染物浓度及呼吸系统死亡数据，运用广义相加模型（GAM）来确定臭氧浓度与呼吸系统死亡之间的相关性。我们考虑了单滞后和累积滞后结构以及季节修正，以研究中国东北地区沈阳的臭氧暴露与呼吸系统死亡率之间的联系。同时还评估了臭氧与气象因素的协同效应。结果表明，无论暴露与死亡发生之间的时间延迟如何，臭氧与每日呼吸系统疾病导致的死亡人数之间均存在显著相关性。臭氧浓度每升高10µg/m³，在滞后1天时与呼吸系统死亡增加0.85%（95%CI 0.18 - 1.52%）相关，在累积滞后3天时与呼吸系统死亡增加1.43%（95%CI 0.40 - 2.48%）相关。分层分析显示，与寒冷条件相比，温暖条件下臭氧对健康的影响更大。此外，臭氧对女性的影响比对男性更为明显。本研究结果可为当地环境与卫生部门提供一些科学指导。
