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中国沈阳环境中的臭氧对呼吸道死亡率的影响及其与气象因素的协同作用。

Effect of ambient O on respiratory mortality and synergies with meteorological factors in Shenyang, China.

作者信息

Zhao Yuhan, Ma Yuxia, Liu Zongrui, Wan Ziyue, Jiao Haoran, Feng Fengliu, Cheng Bowen

机构信息

Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.

Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang, 111100, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 2;15(1):449. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-84757-7.

Abstract

The impact of O on the respiratory system is a significant global problem. Nevertheless, there is insufficient information about its impact on respiratory disorders in northeast China. In this study, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) to determine the correlation between O concentrations and respiratory deaths based on the daily meteorological data, pollutant concentrations, and respiratory deaths from 2014 to 2016 in Shenyang, a typical city in northeast China. Single and cumulative lag structures and seasonal modification were considered to investigate the link between O exposure and respiratory mortality in Shenyang, northeast China. Synergic effects of O and meteorological factors were also evaluated. Results indicated that there was a significant correlation between O and the number of deaths caused by respiratory diseases on a daily basis, regardless of the time delay between exposure and the occurrence of the deaths. A 10 µg/m rise in O concentration was associated with a 0.85% (95% CI 0.18-1.52%) increase in respiratory death at a lag of 1 day and a 1.43% (95% CI 0.40-2.48%) increase at a cumulative lag of 3 days. Stratified analyses revealed that O had a greater impact on health under warm conditions compared to cold settings. Additionally, O had a more pronounced effect on females than on males. The results for this study could provide some scientific guidance for local environment and health departments.

摘要

臭氧对呼吸系统的影响是一个重大的全球性问题。然而,关于其对中国东北地区呼吸系统疾病影响的信息却十分匮乏。在本研究中,我们基于中国东北地区典型城市沈阳2014年至2016年的每日气象数据、污染物浓度及呼吸系统死亡数据,运用广义相加模型(GAM)来确定臭氧浓度与呼吸系统死亡之间的相关性。我们考虑了单滞后和累积滞后结构以及季节修正,以研究中国东北地区沈阳的臭氧暴露与呼吸系统死亡率之间的联系。同时还评估了臭氧与气象因素的协同效应。结果表明,无论暴露与死亡发生之间的时间延迟如何,臭氧与每日呼吸系统疾病导致的死亡人数之间均存在显著相关性。臭氧浓度每升高10µg/m³,在滞后1天时与呼吸系统死亡增加0.85%(95%CI 0.18 - 1.52%)相关,在累积滞后3天时与呼吸系统死亡增加1.43%(95%CI 0.40 - 2.48%)相关。分层分析显示,与寒冷条件相比,温暖条件下臭氧对健康的影响更大。此外,臭氧对女性的影响比对男性更为明显。本研究结果可为当地环境与卫生部门提供一些科学指导。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/88b0/11696727/ab4c4beb192c/41598_2024_84757_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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