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运用层次分析法确定沿海地区气候变化缓解策略的优先次序

Prioritization of climate change mitigation strategies for coastal regions using the Analytic Hierarchy Process.

作者信息

Liu Jie, Liu Xiaohui, Zhu Ancheng, Wang Xitao, Yu Qianqian, Chen Lu, Al-Musawi Tariq J, Aasal Mahnaz

机构信息

Planning and Sea Island Department, Shandong Marine Forecast and Hazard Mitigation Service, Qingdao, Shandong 266100, China.

Shandong Association of Marine Affairs, Qingdao, Shandong 266100, China.

出版信息

Mar Pollut Bull. 2025 Mar;212:117516. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117516. Epub 2025 Jan 2.

Abstract

This study utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritize climate change mitigation strategies for coastal regions systematically. The AHP, a robust data-driven decision-making framework, was employed to evaluate five strategies: Mangrove Restoration, Zoning and Building Codes, Seawalls, Coral Reef Protection, and Relocation Programs. The analysis revealed that Mangrove Restoration emerged as the most effective strategy, achieving the highest score of 0.65 due to its significant environmental impact and long-term sustainability. Zoning and Building Codes followed closely with a score of 0.58, showcasing their cost-effectiveness and regulatory advantages. While effective in urban areas, Seawalls ranked third with a score of 0.48, indicating limitations in social acceptance. Coral Reef Protection and Relocation Programs scored 0.46 and 0.38, respectively, reflecting their higher costs and resource intensity. The findings underscored the importance of prioritizing strategies that balance ecological health and socio-economic feasibility, offering actionable recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders. This research identifies key challenges such as balancing ecological health, socio-economic feasibility, and resource limitations. Our framework addresses these by integrating multi-criteria evaluation, presenting novel prioritization insights for climate adaptation strategies in coastal regions.

摘要

本研究运用层次分析法(AHP)对沿海地区的气候变化缓解策略进行系统排序。层次分析法是一个强大的数据驱动决策框架,用于评估五种策略:红树林恢复、分区与建筑规范、海堤、珊瑚礁保护和搬迁计划。分析表明,红树林恢复是最有效的策略,因其显著的环境影响和长期可持续性,获得了最高得分0.65。分区与建筑规范紧随其后,得分为0.58,显示出其成本效益和监管优势。海堤在城市地区虽有效,但以0.48分排名第三,表明其在社会接受度方面存在局限性。珊瑚礁保护和搬迁计划分别得分为0.46和0.38,反映出它们成本更高且资源密集度更大。研究结果强调了优先考虑平衡生态健康和社会经济可行性的策略的重要性,为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了可操作的建议。本研究确定了关键挑战,如平衡生态健康、社会经济可行性和资源限制。我们的框架通过整合多标准评估来解决这些问题,为沿海地区的气候适应策略提供了新颖的优先排序见解。

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