Individualized temporal patterns drive human sleep spindle timing.

Sleep spindles are cortical electrical oscillations considered critical for memory consolidation and sleep stability. The timing and pattern of sleep spindles are likely to be important in driving synaptic plasticity during sleep as well as preventing disruption of sleep by sensory and internal stimuli. However, the relative importance of factors such as sleep depth, cortical up/down-state, and temporal clustering in governing sleep spindle dynamics remains poorly understood. Here, we analyze sleep data from 1,025 participants, statistically modeling the simultaneous influences of multiple factors on moment-to-moment spindle production using a point process-generalized linear model framework. Results reveal fingerprint-like timing patterns, characterized by a refractory period followed by a period of increased spindle activity, which are highly individualized yet consistent night-to-night, with increased variability with age. Strikingly, short-term (<15 s) temporal patterns of past spindle history are the main determinant of spindle timing, accounting for over 70% of the statistical deviance-surpassing the contribution of factors such as cortical up/down-state (slow oscillation phase), sleep depth, and long-term history (15 to 90 s, including ~50 s infraslow activity). Short-term history has a statistically significant influence in over 98% of the population, suggesting it is a near-universal feature of spindle activity. Short-term history and slow oscillation phase exert independent effects on spindle timing. Our results establish a robust statistical framework to examine abnormalities in sleep spindle timing observed in neurological disorders and aging, as well as the relationship between individualized sleep spindle timing, cognition, and sleep stability.