Boruzs Klára, Bán Eszter Barbara, Dombrádi Viktor, Bányai Gábor, Szőllősi Gergő József, Bíró Klára
Institute of Health Economics and Management, Faculty of Economicsand Business, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary.
Oro-Maxillofacial Surgery and Stomatology Clinic, Health Care Service Units, Clinics University of Debrecen Clinical Center, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary.
BMC Oral Health. 2025 Jan 7;25(1):35. doi: 10.1186/s12903-024-05134-4.
Cancer is a significant public health issue all over the world. The diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of cancer patients are a huge health, economic and social burden for societies. The link between the state of health of a country and its economic performance has been proven by numerous studies. The aim of this study was to examine the age-standardized death rate of oral cancer in relation to the economic development of 13 European countries.
Aggregated data were collected from the European Health for All (HFA-DB) database until 2019 and analysed using second degree polynomial functions and correlation analyses, followed by time-series analysis involving vector autoregressive models.
We found that in 10 of the 13 surveyed countries, the age-standardized death rate of oral cancer initially increased with GDP growth and then showed a downward trend above a certain level of economic development. Austria had a weak but significant positive effect with the second lag of GDP, Hungary had a significant negative effect with the first lag of GDP, and Italy had a significant negative effect with the second lag of GDP. In most cases, both the first and second lags of GDP changes were not statistically significant, indicating that short-term fluctuations in GDP do not directly influence changes in oral cancer mortality rates. Overall, while there are clear long-term associations between GDP and oral cancer mortality rates, the immediate causal effects of GDP changes on mortality rates are limited, suggesting that other factors and longer-term dynamics could play a more crucial role in this relationship.
An increase in a country's economic development alone does not guarantee a decrease in the number of oral cancer patients. Therefore, in order to reduce the number of cases of oral cancer, strengthening education and prevention are essential.
癌症是全球重大的公共卫生问题。癌症患者的诊断、治疗及随访给社会带来了巨大的健康、经济和社会负担。众多研究已证实一个国家的健康状况与其经济表现之间存在关联。本研究旨在探讨13个欧洲国家口腔癌的年龄标准化死亡率与经济发展的关系。
收集截至2019年来自欧洲全民健康（HFA-DB）数据库的汇总数据，并使用二次多项式函数和相关分析进行分析，随后进行涉及向量自回归模型的时间序列分析。
我们发现，在13个被调查国家中的10个国家，口腔癌的年龄标准化死亡率最初随国内生产总值（GDP）增长而上升，然后在一定经济发展水平之上呈下降趋势。奥地利与GDP的二阶滞后存在微弱但显著的正相关，匈牙利与GDP的一阶滞后存在显著负相关，意大利与GDP的二阶滞后存在显著负相关。在大多数情况下，GDP变化的一阶和二阶滞后均无统计学意义，这表明GDP的短期波动不会直接影响口腔癌死亡率的变化。总体而言，虽然GDP与口腔癌死亡率之间存在明显的长期关联，但GDP变化对死亡率的直接因果效应有限，这表明其他因素和长期动态在这种关系中可能发挥更关键的作用。
仅一个国家经济发展水平的提高并不能保证口腔癌患者数量的减少。因此，为了减少口腔癌病例数，加强教育和预防至关重要。
