Lu Fuzhi, Lu Huayu, Gu Yao, Lin Pengyu, Lu Zhengyao, Zhang Qiong, Zhang Hongyan, Yang Fan, Dong Xiaoyi, Yi Shuangwen, Chen Deliang, Pausata Francesco S R, Ben-Yami Maya, Mecking Jennifer V
School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jan 8;16(1):477. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-55888-w.
Multiple tipping points in the Earth system could be triggered when global warming exceeds specific thresholds. However, the degree of their impact on the East Asian hydroclimate remains uncertain due to the lack of quantitative rainfall records. Here we present an ensemble reconstruction of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using nine statistical and machine learning methods based on multi-proxy records from a maar lake in southern China. Our results define five tipping points in the EASM rainfall since the LGM, which are characterized by abrupt and irreversible regime shifts with a median amplitude of 387 ± 73 mm (24 ± 5 %). Combined with multi-model simulations and existing records, we attribute these tipping points to cascades of abrupt shifts in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and Saharan vegetation. Our findings underscore the nonlinear behavior of the EASM and its coupling with other tipping elements.
当全球变暖超过特定阈值时，地球系统中的多个临界点可能会被触发。然而，由于缺乏定量降雨记录，它们对东亚水文气候的影响程度仍不确定。在此，我们基于中国南方一个玛珥湖的多指标记录，使用九种统计和机器学习方法，对末次盛冰期（LGM）以来的东亚夏季风（EASM）降雨进行了集合重建。我们的结果确定了自LGM以来EASM降雨的五个临界点，其特征是突然且不可逆的状态转变，中位数幅度为387±73毫米（24±5%）。结合多模型模拟和现有记录，我们将这些临界点归因于大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）和撒哈拉植被的突然转变级联。我们的发现强调了EASM的非线性行为及其与其他临界点要素的耦合。
