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Development and validation of a novel model to predict post-stroke cognitive impairment within 6 months after acute ischemic stroke.

作者信息

Wei Ming, Zhu Xiaofeng, Yang Xiu, Shang Jin, Tong Qiang, Han Qiu

机构信息

Department of Neurology, Huai'an First People's Hospital, The Affiliated Huai'an No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huai'an, Jiangsu, China.

出版信息

Front Neurol. 2024 Dec 24;15:1451786. doi: 10.3389/fneur.2024.1451786. eCollection 2024.


DOI:10.3389/fneur.2024.1451786
PMID:39777316
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11703722/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Cognitive decline following acute ischemic stroke (AIS), termed post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI), is a prevalent phenomenon that significantly elevates disability and mortality rates among affected patients. The objective of this investigation was to develop a robust clinical prediction model capable of forecasting PSCI within six months post-AIS and subsequently validate its effectiveness. METHODS: A cohort of 573 AIS patients was stratified into two groups: those with PSCI (260 cases) and those who remained cognitively normal (CN) (313 cases). These patients were further subdivided into three distinct cohorts: a development cohort comprising 193 AIS patients, an internal validation cohort with 193 AIS patients, and an external validation cohort encompassing 187 AIS patients. A thorough multifactor logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify independent predictors of PSCI, which were subsequently incorporated into the prediction model for comprehensive analysis and validation. The discriminatory power, calibration accuracy, and clinical net benefits of the prediction model were rigorously evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration plots, and decision curve analyses, respectively. RESULTS: Utilizing a meticulously selected panel of variables, including smoking status, alcohol consumption, female gender, low educational attainment, NIHSS score at admission, stroke progression, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, stroke localization, HCY levels, and Lp-PLA2 levels, a clinical prediction model was formulated to predict the occurrence of PSCI within six months of AIS. The model demonstrated AUC-ROC values of 0.898 (95%CI, 0.853-0.942), 0.847 (95%CI, 0.794-0.901), and 0.849 (95%CI, 0.7946-0.9031) in the development, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Further validation through calibration curve analyses, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests, and additional metrics confirmed the model's impressive predictive performance. CONCLUSION: The proposed model exhibits strong discriminative ability for predicting PSCI and holds considerable promise for guiding clinical decision-making. However, ongoing optimization with multicenter data is necessary to bolster its robustness and broaden its applicability.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/448db5da090e/fneur-15-1451786-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/8b8048fa68dd/fneur-15-1451786-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/2dbb627bcc3e/fneur-15-1451786-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/a7af3cd44858/fneur-15-1451786-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/c5eca9fdcc36/fneur-15-1451786-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/ba086ff90913/fneur-15-1451786-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/d952f1070784/fneur-15-1451786-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/448db5da090e/fneur-15-1451786-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/8b8048fa68dd/fneur-15-1451786-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/2dbb627bcc3e/fneur-15-1451786-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/a7af3cd44858/fneur-15-1451786-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/c5eca9fdcc36/fneur-15-1451786-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/ba086ff90913/fneur-15-1451786-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/d952f1070784/fneur-15-1451786-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af3c/11703722/448db5da090e/fneur-15-1451786-g007.jpg

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Role and Relationship Between Homocysteine and HS in Ischemic Stroke.

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Associations Between Vascular Risk Factor Levels and Cognitive Decline Among Stroke Survivors.

JAMA Netw Open. 2023-5-1

[2]
Which cutoff value of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment should be used for post-stroke cognitive impairment? A systematic review and meta-analysis on diagnostic test accuracy.

Int J Stroke. 2023-10

[3]
Development and validation of a clinical model (DREAM-LDL) for post-stroke cognitive impairment at 6 months.

Aging (Albany NY). 2021-9-10

[4]
The Impact of Vascular Risk Factors on Post-stroke Cognitive Impairment: The Nor-COAST Study.

Front Neurol. 2021-8-5

[5]
Poststroke Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal Study from a Tertiary Care Center.

J Neurosci Rural Pract. 2019-7

[6]
Predictors of Cognitive Impairment After Stroke: A Prospective Stroke Cohort Study.

J Alzheimers Dis. 2019

[7]
Who should undergo a comprehensive cognitive assessment after a stroke? A cognitive risk score.

Neurology. 2018-10-17

[8]
Early MoCA predicts long-term cognitive and functional outcome and mortality after stroke.

Neurology. 2018-10-17

[9]
Longitudinal Effect of Stroke on Cognition: A Systematic Review.

J Am Heart Assoc. 2018-1-15

[10]
Development and validation of a risk score (CHANGE) for cognitive impairment after ischemic stroke.

Sci Rep. 2017-9-29

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