Buendía-Hernández F A, OrtizBevia M J, Alvarez-Garcia F J, RuizdeElvira A, Salazar J M
Department of Physics and Mathematics, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 8;15(1):1273. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-85086-5.
Since 1999, every report released by the International Panel on Climate Change has advocated a decrease in the greenhouse gas emissions associated with aviation in order to preserve the current climate. This study used a two variable differential equations model with a non-linear control term to address several aspects of the emissions stabilization issue. By optimizing the control term parameter, several management alternatives can be obtained based on the properties of the phase plane of the model solutions, as identified by a stability analysis. The system can be stabilised around an equilibrium point that maintains the present number of passengers, or maintains the emissions level or is nearest to its present state. Each of these options entails different issues of growth or reduction in the number of passengers and/or the emissions rate, directly obtained from the model results. The last option seems especially novel and promising, since only short-distance flight passengers are severely reduced, while long-distance and international passengers are allowed to growth, and their associated emissions are reduced to below 50 percent of their actual value. Moreover, in a scenario of slow growth in air traffic, these rates could improve, with fewer reductions in the number of short-distance passengers.
自1999年以来,国际气候变化专门委员会发布的每份报告都主张减少与航空业相关的温室气体排放,以维持当前气候状况。本研究使用了一个带有非线性控制项的双变量微分方程模型,来探讨排放稳定问题的几个方面。通过优化控制项参数,基于模型解的相平面特性,经稳定性分析确定,可以获得几种管理方案。该系统可以围绕一个平衡点实现稳定,该平衡点可以维持当前的乘客数量、维持排放水平或最接近当前状态。这些选项中的每一个都涉及乘客数量和/或排放率增长或减少的不同问题,这些问题可直接从模型结果中得出。最后一个选项似乎特别新颖且有前景,因为只有短途航班乘客数量大幅减少,而长途和国际航班乘客数量得以增长,且其相关排放量降至实际值的50%以下。此外,在航空交通缓慢增长的情况下,这些比率可能会提高,短途乘客数量的减少幅度会更小。