Grewe Volker, Gangoli Rao Arvind, Grönstedt Tomas, Xisto Carlos, Linke Florian, Melkert Joris, Middel Jan, Ohlenforst Barbara, Blakey Simon, Christie Simon, Matthes Sigrun, Dahlmann Katrin
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany.
Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands.
Nat Commun. 2021 Jun 22;12(1):3841. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24091-y.
Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society's mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO and non-CO effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation's climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.
航空是全球经济的重要贡献者，满足了社会的出行需求。它通过一氧化碳和非一氧化碳效应，包括凝结尾迹 - 卷云形成和臭氧生成，对气候变化产生影响。目前，人们对旨在减少航空业气候影响的政策、法规和研究有着浓厚兴趣。在此，我们模拟了这些措施对全球变暖的影响，并对潜在的技术改进进行了自下而上的分析，通过一系列直至2100年的情景对该行业目标的假设提出挑战。我们表明，尽管航空业的排放目标符合《巴黎协定》的总体目标，但航空业的气候影响很有可能无法实现这些目标。我们的评估包括可行的技术进步和可持续航空燃料的可用性。这一结论在几种新冠疫情后复苏情景下都是稳健的，包括出行行为的变化。
